global trade war

Chinese President Xi Jinping invoked the "Thucydides Trap" during talks with US President Donald Trump, highlighting concerns that the rising power's growth could lead to conflict with the established dominant power. This theory, popularized by Graham Allison, suggests structural tensions make war more likely, a concept now central to global geopolitical debates involving trade wars and technological competition.

President Trump's visit to China is overshadowed by the Iran War, which has disrupted global energy supplies and impacted his approval ratings. While trade and Taiwan remain on the agenda, the protracted conflict in Iran presents a significant challenge, with the US struggling to achieve its war aims and facing a decline in superpower status.

During their discussions, President Trump and Xi Jinping placed Taiwan at the forefront of their diplomatic agenda. Trump perceives arms sales to Taiwan as a way to gain leverage, whereas Taiwan insists on its importance for regional harmony. Given its strategic significance in the technology sector, especially in chip manufacturing, any tension involving Taiwan could disturb the global economy.

The Indian rupee continued its decline against the US dollar, falling 18 paise to 96.38 amid rising crude oil prices and Middle East tensions. The currency has lost over 5% since late February, with concerns over geopolitical instability and foreign portfolio investor outflows pressuring its value.

Oil prices saw a slight uptick as traders awaited crucial talks between US President Trump and China's Xi Jinping. Lingering concerns over the Strait of Hormuz disruptions and the ongoing Middle East conflict are keeping markets on edge. Despite US pressure, China's continued reliance on Iranian oil adds complexity to potential resolutions.

Taiwan, a flashpoint in US-China rivalry, is increasingly central to global tensions. President Xi Jinping's "Thucydides Trap" warning highlights the risk of conflict as China rises. The island's strategic importance in semiconductors and trade, coupled with historical crises, underscores the escalating danger of miscalculation.

The govt should decontrol the price of all fertilisers and instead give all farmers a flat grant of Rs 5,000, paid into their bank accounts

President Trump embarks on a crucial three-day visit to China, set to engage in high-stakes talks with President Xi Jinping. Discussions will span critical global issues including the Middle East conflict, Taiwan, AI, and nuclear weapons. Business leaders are accompanying Trump, signaling a focus on trade and potential new deals, as both nations navigate complex economic and security landscapes.

Escalating Middle East conflict has choked the world's busiest oil passage, pushing crude prices past $100 per barrel with warnings of a surge to $167 or higher. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens a severe energy and trade shock, potentially reducing global trade growth significantly and deepening economic uncertainty worldwide.

India has reportedly sought an extension from the US to continue importing Russian oil, with the current waiver expiring May 16. The Congress party has sharply criticized PM Modi, accusing his government of "trading away India’s honour and dignity" and compromising energy security by "groveling before America" for permission.

Global oil prices surged as President Trump expressed impatience with Iran, fueling fears of Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Brent and WTI crude saw significant weekly gains amid uncertainty over the Iran conflict and supply concerns. Despite claims of increased vessel crossings, the Strait remains a critical choke point, with maritime incidents further heightening market anxieties about tight supply.

Mitsui OSK Lines anticipates further container rate increases due to a gap between rising bunker oil costs and freight rates, particularly in Asia. While a prolonged conflict could impact demand, the company remains bullish on India's growth, expanding its fleet for energy and vehicle transport.

Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are unlikely to rise too much unless crude oil prices come down for a longer term duration, says Praveen Singh, Head Currencies and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.