IMF

In a significant step towards revitalizing its economy, Pakistan has wrapped up vital discussions with the IMF, centering on fiscal strategies and essential reforms. The dialogues emphasized changes in the energy sector, restructuring of state-owned enterprises, and efforts to draw in private investment.

Pakistan plans to increase its defense budget by PKR 100 billion for the next fiscal year, reaching an estimated PKR 2.665 trillion. This move aligns with an IMF-backed reform program projecting a significant rise in federal revenues to PKR 17.144 trillion. The government is also committed to digitizing payments and tackling corruption across institutions.

Gold prices dropped to over a month's low as rising oil prices and Middle East tensions fueled investor anxiety, pushing them away from the safe-haven asset. Higher energy costs are also raising inflation concerns, increasing the likelihood of prolonged elevated interest rates from the US Federal Reserve.

India's foreign exchange reserves experienced a significant drop of $7.794 billion, reaching $690.693 billion in the week ending May 1. This decline, primarily driven by a fall in foreign currency assets and gold reserves, follows a previous decrease. The central bank's intervention in the forex market to support the rupee is a key factor behind this trend.

A new book challenges India's growth narrative, highlighting a 'lost decade' of jobless growth. With millions of young Indians unemployed and a significant return to agriculture, the country faces a narrowing demographic dividend window. Experts warn of potential social conflict and a credibility crisis for the current economic model.

India's enduring love for gold spans centuries, evolving from tradition to modern investment. Women hold vast reserves, and the market is set for significant growth. Digital gold and ETFs are gaining traction alongside traditional jewellery. Gold remains a symbol of prosperity, security, and auspiciousness for Indians across generations.

Pakistan admits its vulnerability to global oil shocks, lacking strategic reserves like India, which holds 60-70 days of stock. Islamabad's limited reserves leave it exposed, unlike India's stable prices aided by fiscal space and strategic stockpiles. Pakistan's IMF commitments restrict its ability to offer consumer relief amid soaring crude prices.

RBI is not alone in repatriating its gold reserves. Several central banks like France’s Banque de France, Germany’s Deutsche Bundesbank, Serbia’s National Bank have done the same - buy why?

As Indian-Americans excel and India’s economy expands, perceptions are being rewritten. Not everyone in the US is comfortable with that new reality.

For RBI the situation is clear: The resilience of the global economy, already inflicted with trade tensions, is being tested by the conflict in West Asia. The biggest takeaway from the RBI bulletin is that India’s domestic supply chains may come under risk from a prolonged war scenario, though strong macroeconomic fundamentals provide a buffer.

Anthropic's powerful AI model, Claude Mythos, capable of finding software vulnerabilities, has prompted a global financial sector scramble. Banks, regulators, and central bankers are urgently assessing risks and accelerating cybersecurity investments. Project Glasswing offers controlled access for defensive security work, highlighting the evolving threat landscape.

India’s economy is still expanding quickly, but the country is no longer fifth in the IMF’s latest global GDP rankings. A weaker rupee, dollar-based comparisons and a new GDP series help explain why the headline has changed without overturning the larger growth story

Pakistan aims to repay the remaining $1.5 billion loan to the UAE by April 23, following a $2 billion repayment. This comes as the country anticipates a $1.2 billion disbursement from the IMF after recent negotiations. Saudi Arabia has also extended a $3 billion deposit maturity, depositing $2 billion to bolster reserves.

India's foreign exchange reserves surged by $2.362 billion to $703.308 billion in the week ending April 17, following a previous gain of $3.825 billion. This increase, driven by rising foreign currency assets and gold reserves, marks a rebound after a decline caused by Middle East geopolitical tensions.

In fact, IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (April 2026) sees India sitting at the sixth spot this financial year too. What has led to the sudden fall? Why has India dropped to the sixth position, falling behind the UK, instead of overtaking Japan to become the fourth largest economy?

Barclays CEO CS Venkatakrishnan issued a stark warning about Anthropic's Mythos AI, deeming it a serious threat to the global banking system. He anticipates increasingly powerful AI models will emerge with distressing frequency, necessitating rapid adaptation and robust safeguards from financial institutions worldwide.

Anthropic is reportedly preparing to roll out its powerful and controversial AI model, Mythos, to European and UK banks within the coming days, a report by news agency Reuters said, citing sources familiar with the matter. While JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America have been testing Mythos internally through Anthropic's “Project Glasswing” initiative, reports have said that the company is planning to offer it to UK banks as well.

In India, growth for 2025 is revised upward by 1.0 percentage point relative to October, to 7.6 percent. IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas noted that, in the absence of the conflict, growth projections for 2026 might have been revised upward to 3.4 percent.

The India Meteorological Department has forecast the possibility of El Nino conditions during the South West monsoon season. Economists and experts note that a weak monsoon will add to the woes caused by higher crude oil prices, and fertilizer supply disruptions.

The UAE has requested a US financial safety net amid concerns that an Iran war could severely damage its economy and investor confidence. Talks included a currency-swap line proposal, as the UAE fears needing to use other currencies for transactions if dollar shortages arise.

Global financial leaders are raising concerns about new AI models from US tech firms, fearing they could exploit cyber vulnerabilities in the banking sector. The rapid advancement of AI, exemplified by Anthropic's Claude Mythos, presents a significant challenge, prompting urgent calls for robust governance frameworks to prevent misuse and safeguard economies.