retail inflation

Indian consumers may soon face higher prices as wholesale inflation surges, driven by global conflicts impacting commodity and energy costs. While retail inflation remains soft for now, a widening gap between wholesale and consumer price indices suggests businesses will likely pass on increased production expenses, leading to costlier everyday goods and services in the coming months.

retail inflation edged up to 3.5% in April, driven by a rise in food prices. While fuel inflation slowed, restaurant services saw a significant price jump due to higher LPG costs. Consumer durables like cars and air conditioners, however, became cheaper. Experts note upside risks to the inflation outlook despite the softer-than-expected reading.

India's retail inflation climbed to a 13-month high of 3.48% in April, primarily fueled by soaring food prices. Consumer Food Price Index accelerated to 4.20%, with rural inflation outpacing urban rates. While silver and gold jewellery saw significant price hikes, tomatoes surged, but potatoes and onions experienced deflation. This marks the second consecutive monthly rise, nearing the RBI's target.

India's retail inflation remains largely unaffected by West Asian conflict, with SBI retaining its FY27 forecast at 4.5%. While imported inflation eased slightly, rising food prices, particularly tomatoes, are a key driver. Future trends hinge on energy price pass-through and summer crop progress, with the RBI flagging upside risks.

US stocks advanced on Friday, nearing all-time highs as easing bond market pressure boosted investor sentiment. Strong retail and tech earnings, with companies like Ross Stores and Zoom exceeding expectations, fueled the gains. Global markets also saw positive movement, with Japan's Nikkei reaching a record.

Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a surge in US fuel prices, pushing inflation to a three-year high and eroding wage gains. While the US economy has shown resilience with steady consumer spending and job growth, persistent inflation threatens household budgets and consumer sentiment, with higher bond yields signaling deeper economic worries.

India's transportation fuel demand growth is set for a sharp slowdown in late 2026. Higher prices, government conservation efforts, and a weakening rupee are impacting mobility. Analysts have significantly cut growth forecasts, with petrol demand facing the steepest decline due to reduced commuting and discretionary travel.

Governor Malhotra Says Flexible Inflation Targeting May Not Be Enough Amid Crisis

Fuel prices in India saw their first hike in four years, with petrol and diesel increasing by Rs 3. This move aims to alleviate significant daily losses incurred by oil marketing companies, estimated at Rs 1,000 crore. While consumer inflation may see a slight uptick, the fiscal impact is considered minimal, with annual consumption expected to recover.

The government increased fuel prices by Rs 3 per litre to support oil marketing companies facing losses due to high global crude oil prices and a weakening rupee. However, further rupee depreciation could negate these gains, with companies incurring significant daily losses. The price hike offers limited relief, covering only a fraction of projected losses.

Sitharaman also pointed out that apart from higher crude oil prices, fertiliser prices have reached “unimaginable” levels, while elevated gold prices are creating challenges on the external sector front.

Economists say that if the situation does not improve in the coming days, then more hikes may be in the offing. However, the approach of gradual hikes in petrol and diesel prices is to avoid an immediate inflation shock to the economy.

India's wholesale inflation surged to 8.30% in April 2026, a significant jump from March's 3.88%. This spike is primarily attributed to soaring fuel, power, and crude oil prices, exacerbated by the West Asia crisis. Mineral oils, basic metals, and manufactured products also contributed to the rise, impacting various sectors.

The successive hikes come after an extended period during which retail fuel prices remained unchanged, despite higher global crude prices, shrinking refining margins, and weakness in the rupee significantly increasing import costs.

Congress workers protested rising fuel and milk prices, with leaders arriving by bullock cart to highlight inflation's impact. Delhi Congress president Devendra Yadav criticized the government's handling of essential commodity costs, stating inflation has doubled since 2014. This demonstration follows a recent Rs 3 per litre hike in petrol and diesel prices across major cities.