global trade tensions

The Indian rupee hit a record low of 96.70 against the US dollar on Tuesday, extending its losing streak to eight sessions. Rising crude oil prices, foreign fund outflows, and a strong dollar due to global risk aversion are key factors. Forex traders also cited supply-chain disruptions. The Reserve Bank of India's intervention and import restrictions might offer some support.

The Indian rupee continued its decline against the US dollar, falling 18 paise to 96.38 amid rising crude oil prices and Middle East tensions. The currency has lost over 5% since late February, with concerns over geopolitical instability and foreign portfolio investor outflows pressuring its value.

Chinese President Xi Jinping invoked the "Thucydides Trap" during talks with US President Donald Trump, highlighting concerns that the rising power's growth could lead to conflict with the established dominant power. This theory, popularized by Graham Allison, suggests structural tensions make war more likely, a concept now central to global geopolitical debates involving trade wars and technological competition.

Rupee hit a fresh record low of 96.07 against the US dollar on Friday, extending its losing streak over three straight sessions amid soaring crude oil prices and escalating tensions in West Asia. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.86 against the US dollar and slipped further to 95.94, down 30 paise from its previous close.

During their discussions, President Trump and Xi Jinping placed Taiwan at the forefront of their diplomatic agenda. Trump perceives arms sales to Taiwan as a way to gain leverage, whereas Taiwan insists on its importance for regional harmony. Given its strategic significance in the technology sector, especially in chip manufacturing, any tension involving Taiwan could disturb the global economy.

Indian markets brace for a volatile week, with the US-Iran conflict and soaring crude oil prices dominating investor sentiment. A weakening rupee, coupled with inflation concerns, adds to the pressure. Analysts anticipate heightened sensitivity to geopolitical developments, especially concerning the Strait of Hormuz, and will closely watch foreign investor activity and upcoming economic data.

President Trump embarks on a crucial three-day visit to China, set to engage in high-stakes talks with President Xi Jinping. Discussions will span critical global issues including the Middle East conflict, Taiwan, AI, and nuclear weapons. Business leaders are accompanying Trump, signaling a focus on trade and potential new deals, as both nations navigate complex economic and security landscapes.

The Sensex tumbled over 1,000 points to slip below the 74,300 mark, while the Nifty 50 dropped more than 300 points to trade under 23,350. The steep decline erased nearly Rs 7 lakh crore from the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies, reducing it to around Rs 454 lakh crore.

US staff and press accompanying President Trump reportedly discarded materials from Chinese officials before departing Beijing. This occurred despite public displays of goodwill, as behind-the-scenes tensions over security and media access surfaced during the visit, echoing past diplomatic friction.

Global powers are now vying for India's attention, recognizing its growing influence. While the US seeks to bolster trade, India has been actively forging significant trade agreements, positioning itself as a reliable and indispensable partner in a shifting geopolitical landscape.

A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a severe global energy crisis, potentially pushing oil prices to $200 per barrel by late 2026. Wood Mackenzie's report outlines three scenarios, with the worst-case predicting a significant economic contraction. This warning echoes Iran's own earlier predictions amid escalating regional tensions.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are significantly impacting India's economy. Rising crude oil prices have led to a Rs 3 per litre fuel hike, eroded investor wealth by over Rs 5.85 lakh crore, and pushed the rupee to an all-time low. Foreign investors are also withdrawing funds, while the import bill has surged.

US President Trump revealed Chinese President Xi Jinping desires the Strait of Hormuz reopened to stabilize global energy markets. Both leaders reportedly agreed on the necessity of this crucial shipping route's resumption. Discussions also touched upon potential increased Chinese purchases of American oil and agricultural products, alongside ongoing tensions regarding Taiwan.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar criticized "unilateral coercive measures" and sanctions, stating they disproportionately harm developing nations and cannot replace diplomacy. He also voiced concern over the West Asia crisis, emphasizing the need for uninterrupted maritime traffic and a sustained ceasefire in Gaza, advocating for a two-state solution.

CNG prices have seen a third hike in under ten days, now costing Rs 81.09 per kg in Delhi. This follows recent increases in petrol and diesel prices, driven by surging global crude oil costs due to Middle East tensions. Transport operators are protesting, demanding fare revisions and a rollback of fuel surcharges.

Oil prices surged over 2% on Monday, driven by escalating Middle East tensions and stalled de-escalation efforts. Reports of a nuclear power plant attack and potential US military options against Iran further unsettled markets. Both Brent and WTI crude saw significant gains, continuing a sharp rally from the previous week.

Foreign funds net sell 8.4K crore stocks; investors poorer by 6 lakh crore

Despite the bullish undertone in equities, several risk factors continue to keep investors on edge. The rupee touched a fresh record low after breaching the 95.8 mark against the US dollar for the first time.

In a significant diplomatic gesture, President Trump has welcomed Chinese President Xi Jinping and his spouse to the White House on September 24th, calling it a historic meeting of minds. Central to their discussions was the crucial issue of ensuring stable global energy flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, with both leaders underlining its significance.

Foreign investors have continued their withdrawal from Indian equities, with net outflows reaching Rs 27,048 crore this month. This selling spree, totaling Rs 2.2 lakh crore in 2026, is driven by global macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and a stronger US dollar making developed markets more attractive.

China has agreed to purchase over 200 Boeing aircraft. This deal could expand to 750 planes. The agreement follows President Donald Trump's visit to China and meeting with President Xi Jinping. This marks a significant order for Boeing. GE Aerospace will supply the engines. The deal is important for China's aviation expansion.