Ernakulam to get hottest summers among country’s coastal districts

Kochi: Ernakulam is projected to record the highest increase in maximum average summer temperature among all 40 coastal districts in India by 2040, according to a study. The district is expected to see a rise of 1.3 degrees Celsius, the steepest among the districts covered in the study by Azim Premji University, Bengaluru, titled ‘Indian Coastal Region: Climate Projections 2021-2040’.Using the 1960s as the baseline and the CMIP6 climate model— a globally recognized framework used to project future climate scenarios—the study reveals a consistent warming trend. Ernakulam’s summer maximum average temperature, currently at 35.5 degrees Celsius, is projected to rise by 1.3 degrees Celsius. Southwest monsoon rainfall, starting from a baseline of 1,222 mm, is projected to increase by 9%. The district’s population is expected to reach 53 lakh by 2030, adding pressure on already strained urban infrastructure.Santonu Goswami, professor at the School of Climate Change and Sustainability at Azim Premji University and lead researcher of the study, said further research is needed to understand why Ernakulam is projected to see the sharpest rise in summer temperatures. “With precipitation projected to rise, the city is prone to urban flooding. With drastic anomalies in maximum temperature, urban heat and other climate-related disturbances will worsen. The district must build adaptive measures to mitigate the impact,” he said.Dr M G Manoj, scientist at the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cusat, who was not part of the study, said the projection is consistent with the current trajectory of climate change. Even a 0.1 degree Celsius rise, he warned, triggers a chain reaction across sectors. “If climate change hits agriculture, the economy will suffer through inflation. Rising temperatures increase moisture, leading to the spread of pests and pathogens. We are not yet prepared to face these challenges,” he said.Retired chief town planner K S Ajaykumar said Ernakulam, particularly within city limits, is ill-equipped to handle both flooding and urban heat. He noted that Kochi has been witnessing unprecedented waterlogging for several years, with drinking water sources getting contaminated and rising sea levels compounding the problem. Road levels have risen over time, leaving lower-lying homes with no room for floodwater to recede. He called for a local-level alert system to help residents respond to rising flood levels.On urban heat, Ajaykumar warned that a 1.3 degree Celsius rise in average temperature could translate to a four to five degree Celsius increase at the local level. “We need to expand green cover, increase vegetation and avoid heat-reflective structures such as glass panels in buildings to reduce heat absorption in urban areas.”