After the first phase of the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections, Union Home Minister Amit Shah claimed that the BJP could win over 110 seats out of 152 in the early phases, signalling strong confidence of forming the next government in the state. The party has based its optimism on several key factors, including record voter turnout of around 92%+, strong expected performance in regions like North Bengal and Junglemahal, reported return of migrant workers for voting, enhanced security arrangements with heavy CAPF deployment, and a campaign focused on anti-incumbency and governance issues. This report explains the five main reasons behind the BJP’s bullish post-Phase 1 assessment and how the party is interpreting early voting trends in West Bengal’s 2026 election.