Anti-incumbency in elections on the decline? Jury still out

BENGALURU: The recent results of five state polls and assembly and Lok Sabha elections held in the past five years suggest pro-incumbency is the new trend as people are choosing the parties in power. However, political analysts say anti-incumbency can’t be written off and that ruling parties are returning to power due to various factors, including lack of strategy and will among the opposition.
Karnataka BJP also strongly believes it will return to power despite the fact that no ruling party has been voted back in the state since 1980s.

The reverse trend has continued in the just-concluded elections to five states as BJP has been voted back in Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur. Barring Goa, the party has got a thumping majority, proving the advocates of anti-incumbency — who felt the party’s prospects may suffer due to its failure to contain rising prices and alleged mishandling of the pandemic — wrong.
In the past four years, 11 states have gone to polls and in eight — Bihar, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Kerala, Telangana, Delhi, Odisha and Assam — the ruling party or its allies in power have been voted back. Despite winning the majority seats, BJP could not form the government in Maharashtra as its ally Shiv Sena decided to sever two-decade-old ties with the saffron party. Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand are the only three states which saw people voting out the ruling party.
The landslide victory of PM Narendra Modi-led BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections is being seen as a trendsetter in overcoming the anti-incumbency factor. In fact, Modi is the only politician in independent India who hasn’t been bitten by the anti-incumbency bug even once.
So why are people voting for the parties in power? Was there no anti-incumbency against them? Some argue that the good performance of incumbent governments carried more weightage than anti-incumbency, while others say voters are driven by emotions rather than issues.
State BJP spokesperson Ganesh Karnik said the new political template of Modi where people are able to connect more with BJP than other parties is the reason for its repeated victories. “The relentless effort of the Modi government to ensure last-mile delivery of government benefits without any pilferage, revival of cultural nationalism among youth, long-term sustainable development agenda and Modi’s foreign policy keeping India’s interest ahead of everything are appealing to the people, especially youngsters,” he said.
A JD(S) leader begs to differ and says people are making electoral choices based on emotions rather than issues like corruption, price rise, etc. “Even the good work is not being recognised. Our party’s dismal performance in the bypolls despite Kumaraswamy waiving farmers’ loans of nearly Rs 50,000 crore is a testimony to this,” he added.