Make-or-break time

When Ayaz Amir, a journalist known for his satirical writings, ditched the leading Punjabi party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N ) on April 19 this year for a seat with Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), it was because election officials rejected his candidacy from the Chakwal region of Pakistani Punjab. Their reason? Amir had encouraged consumption of alcohol, they said, which is banned in Islam and in the country.Not one to take his rejection lying down, Amir filed an appeal, won a reversal , and switched sides. Scores of other candidates were disqualified by the courts for not being ‘a good Muslim’ . Judges even rejected the papers of some young mothers , telling them that their responsibility was to be at home with the kids Despite bumps like these on the road to democracy, the 2013 general elections are seen by many as having ushered in many ‘firsts’ for Pakistan. For one — if successful — this will be the first time in the history of the 66-year-old state that a democratically elected government will have completed its five-year term and transitioned to another elected government. In the past, those who attempted this feat were felled by direct or indirect military interventions. It’s also the first time that there is a triangular battlefield, a break from the traditional two-party centre-left contest between Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the more conservative Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N ).
Betting on Nawaz
With barely a week to go, the top contender appears to be Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N . With its base and virtually all its supported centred among the business elite and the conservative right in Punjab, Sharif’s party stands the best chance of emerging on top. One third of Pakistan’s 180 millionplus population lives in urban areas. The province of Punjab carries the key to national political success since it accounts for over half of the national population and nearly half of general category seats in the national assembly. Sharif holds sway in Punjab especially as the PML-Q , a party of defectors from the PML-N who supported the military regime of Gen. Pervez Musharraf, is now gasping for life.
Bhutto backfoot
The country’s only real national party with support across provinces is the PPP. Its leader Asif Ali Zardari, currently the president, has handed over the reigns to his relatively inexperienced son, Bilawal. However, given the increase in joblessness and the general frustration among voters on all issues ranging from power shortages to security concerns, the PPP is likely to take a significant hit when voters go to the polls on May 11. The third voice is that of PTI and its leader Imran Khan. The cricket star turned politician has become popular and draws large crowds for his rallies. His anti-drone , anti-US stance has made him especially popular in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and in FATA where drone attacks have been carried out. He is expected to gain votes in urban areas as well. However, Khan has repeatedly made statements in support of shariah and is the only main party candidate who has said that Pakistan doesn’t have homegrown terrorism. It is likely that his party will make the most gains in this election winning as much as three-dozen seats in the national assembly.
Bloodiest ever
It’s also worth looking at the human cost of this current election process — the 2013 elections have heralded the bloodiest election campaign on record. An NGO noted that militants — mostly, the Taliban — carried out 20 attacks on political parties in which 46 people died and 190 were wounded, just in the week after campaigning officially started on April 21. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP announced that it would attack those secular parties that formed an alliance with the last elected government. They identified by name the Karachi-based Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), the Awami National Party (ANP) and the PPP. True to its word, it has attacked these parties , focusing mostly on the ANP, a Pashtun party that has been one of the most vocal local voices against the Taliban in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Despite a poor political record the ANP will likely win sympathy votes for its braveness in the face of constant attack. If they lose, the hardline Islamist party led by Fazl-ur-Rehman will wrest control of KP.
Other players
One other first in this election is that the power of the military has diminished and the khaki boys led by General Ashfaq Kayani are under pressure to stay in the barracks and just observe. Other players in these elections, apart from the bomb-exploding Taliban recruits are the judiciary and the largely toothless election commission. It is the first time that the judiciary has become so powerful that it may well prove the Achilles heel of a successful election. The country’s Supreme Court delegated to lower court judges the power to interpret two articles of the constitution that require candidates to be Muslims. Some candidates were disqualified for flimsy reasons, such as not being able to recite certain verses from the Koran. At the apex of this hierarchy sits the chief justice, Iftikhar Chaudhury, a man who has been given free rein since his restoration. The 2013 elections could well be a wonderful way of making the best of the ‘firsts’ a lasting legacy. Those who have been observing the election ‘fiasco’ on the ground, however, hope that the election commission can maximize participation despite security concerns , given that this is a historic, make-or-break election for Pakistan.
Baluchistan | 14
Ex-PM Nawaz Sharif has allied with nationalist parties in this large and energy-rich province scarred by separatist violence Mainstream parties, Baluch nationalists and right-wing groups all enjoy support here
Sindh | 61
MQM, representing Pakistan’s Urdu speakers, dominates commercial nerve centre of Karachi and Sindh’s second biggest city, Hyderabad 'Frontier Gandhi' Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan’s Awami National Party (ANP) has gained ground in Karachi, leading to fierce turf wars with MQM and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), but Taliban attacks have united the three
Federally administered tribal areas | 14
The Pakistan army is caught in a fierce conflict with the Taliban in this region governed under colonial-era laws along the Afghan border Imran Khan is the only top leader to have visited the tribaldominated region Women contesting seats for the first time
Islamabad | 2
PML-N won the two seats in 2008. This time, the PML-N , the PPP and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) are expected to slug it out
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa | 35
Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif likely to be the key players, with the waning popularity of ANP that was in power till March Repeated Taliban attacks and killings along with corruption charges have crippled the ANP but it may benefit somewhat from a sympathy wave Right-wing parties maintain their influence across some pockets
Punjab | 148
Politically most significant province from which over 55% members are elected Traditionally a stronghold of PML (Nawaz) and PPP Leadership vacuum, anti-incumbency and terrorist threats have the PPP in shambles but it retains influence in south Punjab that is contiguous to its stronghold of Sindh Emergence of Imran Khan as a 'clean' alternative has made the contest in Punjab two-way between his Tehreek-e-Insaf and PML-N Imran’s appeal transcends beyond caste/biradiri loyalties — a major factor in rural Punjab