Next wave possible if new variant emerges, say Goa experts

PANAJI: During the past fortnight, Goa’s Covid-19 graph seems to have plateaued at 150-250 cases, but the state may see a rise in August-September. It may not be substantial considering that a large section of the population will be vaccinated by then, provided that no new severe variant emerges.
“It appears that our cases have plateaued somewhere between 150 to 250 cases a day.Personally, if you ask me, even I’m waiting for these numbers to come down,” state epidemiologist Dr Utkarsh Betodkar said.
Even though cases are low now, it is expected that in August and September there will be some activity in terms of cases increasing.
“It is difficult to say at this juncture the extent of the rise in cases that we may see. If people had not been vaccinated, I would say, the increase would be significant. But since our vaccination has gone very well, the potential increase in cases may not be high, but there shouldn’t be any new severe variant,” Betodakar said.
He said it is not an easy task to predict what would be the scenario in the event any other new variant makes its way. So far, of the total of 120 samples tested to find out Covid variants – since the beginning of the second wave – 109 had delta strain, ten kappa and an alpha.
The good part is, he said, the state conducts a large number of tests every day. On an average, 4,000 to 5,000 tests are done daily, including 1,000-1,500 at border check posts. The state’s case positivity rate has fallen below 5% over the past week “We are not doing unnecessary tests. We are covering the target population even at border check posts,” he said.
It’s mandatory for travellers coming to Goa that they either come with a Covid negative certificate or get tested at border check posts.
Though places such as Margao, Ponda, Cortalim and Ponda have seen a gradual rise in cases in the last few days, he said, it may be because many members in a family testing positive. “Suppose, ten members in a family test positive, the case tally of the whole area goes up. Though a rise is seen in certain areas it is negligible. The ups and down noticed in the weekly average has been minimal,” he said.
It is advisable that a weekly average is counted rather than a daily count. If an unusual rise is noticed it will be immediately brought to the notice of the government, he said.