Voters may dismiss glut of intemperate language: Professor James Manor on Karnataka polls

Acclaimed political scientist and professor emeritus for Commonwealth Studies at University of London, Prof James Manor, considered an authority on Karnataka’s politics for four decades, says the May 10 assembly elections is seeing many firsts. In an email interview with TOI, Manor said the visibly large funding of the governing BJP and a stronger Congress are evident as is JD(S) party’s fight for survival.Excerpts:
How do you see these polls turning out for BJP and Congress?
Available opinion polls offer varied predictions, but most indicate that the incumbent BJP faces an uphill battle and Congress stands a good chance of securing a majority or something close to it. In a state where no government has been re-elected since 1985, this is not a surprise. But BJP suffers from an unusually strong factional conflict between loyalists and defectors who joined it during the latest ‘Operation Kamala’ that brought the party to the helm. BJP also stressed two contrasting themes in its campaign, and the themes conflict somewhat. A strong Hindutva push has alienated some leaders including former chief minister BS Yediyurappa, and the resulting tension has undermined the effectiveness of his successor, Basavaraj Bommai. Congress has reduced the potential conflict between Siddaramaiah’s AHINDA message to help disadvantaged groups and DK Shivakumar’s appeal to fellow Vokkaligas.
Will it be a fight for survival for JD(S)?
If JD(S) does badly, it could be the beginning of the end for it. It has suffered some recent election defeats and defections by leaders who resent the strength of the HD Deve Gowda family. But JD(S) shouldnot be written off as it retains significant support of Vokkaligas, and it has shrewdly chosen issues that appeal to farmers and others in the southern districts.
What are the key issues in this election?
It is hard to decide which issues will count. Corruption in the BJP government has captured headlines, along with its communal polarization drive. But a recent survey by CSDS-Lokniti contains surprises. The main issues for voters are poverty and unemployment. That may hurt BJP, but that survey also showed significant levels of approval for some state government programmes.
Will PM Modi be a factor?
PM Modi is a skilled advocate, and his party has vastly more money to campaign than all others combined. But Karnataka voters have a history of focusing on state-level leaders in state elections, so his impact may be limited.
Will comments like ‘poisonous snake’, ‘nalayak’ and ‘vishkanya’ make an impact?
This election has seen a lot of intemperate language. Many voters in this socially conservative state view it with distaste. But they have seen plenty of it before, so they may shrug it off.
Will caste-based voting have a bearing on results?
It will certainly have an impact, but many other things will also matter. Will some Lingayats drift away from BJP in protest at the sidelining of Yediyurappa, or the denial of a ticket to former CM Jagdish Shettar? Will many Vokkaligas turn from JD(S) to Congress in response to Shivakumar, despite their hesitations about that party’s AHINDA strategy? Will AHINDA attract OBCs? Will the split in Dalit votes —ritually left-hand Dalits supporting BJP and right-hand Dalits backing Congress — continue? There are many unknowns.
What is your assessment of opinion and exit polls?
Several of them are ineptly conducted. Some others are intended to help specific parties. A small number are carefully designed and reliable. It is best not to take them seriously.
Do you see a change in the way the elections are being fought?
There have been some changes. BJP has a much greater advantage in campaign funds than ever before, so the playing field is no longer level. BJP’s strong Hindutva emphasis over recent years is unprecedented, although electoral history in the state suggests that it may not work. Congress has strengthened its grassroots organisation. It also has a clearer strategy than in recent elections, based in part on its success in Himachal Pradesh. All of these are innovations.
Your take on the BJP state leadership and its future?
This election will determine whether BJP returns to its traditional and reasonably successful leadership and strategy: Emphasising caste calculations and offering Muslims reassurance. Or it may confirm the emergence of a new leadership stressing hardline Hindutva. The second appears a less promising strategy. BJP cannot continue stressing both themes as it has done in recent times, because they are somewhat contradictory.