Gold, Silver Rate Today Live Updates: Gold prices set for worst monthly fall in over 17 years; what’s the outlook?

1 Gm Gold 22 Kt - Rs 14,095

1 Gm Gold 24 Kt - Rs 15,375

Silver Per Kg: Rs 2,46,900

So far this month, bullion has declined by more than 13%, setting it up for its sharpest monthly drop since October 2008. The fall has been driven by a stronger dollar and diminishing expectations of a US interest rate cut this year. However, prices are still higher by roughly 5% for the quarter.

1 Gm Gold 22 Kt : Rs 13,670.00

1 Gm Gold 18 Kt : Rs 11,460.00

1 Gm Silver: Rs 250.00

Precious metals recorded gains of over 1% in global markets on Tuesday, building on a recovery after a steep decline of nearly 15% so far in March, though analysts continue to urge caution.

In early trade, spot gold climbed 0.8% to $4,544 per ounce at 0114 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for April delivery edged up 0.3% to $4,573. Spot silver advanced 1.2% to $70.81 per ounce. Platinum rose marginally by 0.1% to $1,902, and palladium increased 1.1% to $1,421 per ounce.

The upward movement in gold and silver was supported by a weaker dollar and a decline in bond yields. However, despite the rebound, precious metals remain on course to log their steepest monthly drop in more than 17 years, as elevated energy prices have reduced expectations of a US interest rate cut this year.
The dollar index slipped slightly during the session.

Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note fell for the first time in three days, dropping nearly 10 basis points to 4.344%. US two-year yields, which are closely linked to interest rate expectations, also declined by around 9 basis points to 3.828%.

A softer dollar made commodities priced in the US currency more accessible to buyers using other currencies, lending support to prices.

"Gold prices are bouncing in early Asia-Pacific trade after US President Donald Trump told aides he is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran... That triggered a risk-on response from financial markets," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

According to a report by the Wall Street Journal on Monday, Trump indicated to his aides that he is open to halting the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, with plans to address its reopening at a later stage.

"Gold has been stabilizing for about a week now, with a rally last Friday a particular standout. That came alongside a drop in Treasury yields that seems to suggest the markets are starting to see the Iran war as a recession risk," Spivak added.

Spot silver advanced 3.3% to $72.27 per ounce, platinum gained nearly 1% to $1,916.77, and palladium rose 2.3% to $1,437.76.

Gold prices moved higher on Tuesday, supported by expectations that tensions in the Middle East could ease. Despite this uptick, the metal remains on track to post its steepest monthly decline in over 17 years, as rising energy costs have weakened prospects for a US interest rate reduction this year.

In early trading, spot gold climbed 1.5% to $4,578.89 per ounce as of 0235 GMT. Meanwhile, US gold futures for April delivery advanced 1.2% to $4,611.30.

Gold prices rebounded on Monday as investors stepped in to buy at lower levels, while a fall in US Treasury yields lifted sentiment across the precious metals segment, according to Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities at HDFC Securities.

He noted that movements in the rupee also played a supportive role for domestic bullion prices. The currency had initially strengthened after the Reserve Bank of India imposed restrictions on onshore long dollar positions to limit speculative trades. However, it later gave up those gains due to firm corporate demand for dollars and rising crude oil prices.

The rupee subsequently crossed the 95-per-dollar threshold for the first time, hitting an all-time low of 95.2350 against the US currency.
Gandhi added that the depreciation in the rupee further aided the rise in domestic gold prices.

Prices of precious metals witnessed a notable recovery of around 3% in the national capital on Monday, supported by renewed demand. Silver surged by Rs 7,000 to reach Rs 2.37 lakh per kilogram, while gold also moved higher, touching Rs 1.51 lakh per 10 grams, driven by fresh purchases from jewellers in the run-up to the wedding season.

Data from the All India Sarafa Association showed that silver climbed Rs 7,000, or 3.04%, to Rs 2,37,000 per kg, inclusive of all taxes, compared with its previous closing level of Rs 2,30,000 per kg on Friday.

Similarly, gold of 99.9% purity rose by Rs 3,700, or 2.5%, to Rs 1,51,500 per 10 grams, inclusive of taxes. In the prior session, the metal had closed at Rs 1,47,800 per 10 grams.

Market participants attributed the rebound to increased physical demand ahead of the wedding season, along with supportive cues from global markets.

In the week ending March 27, spot gold closed with a weekly gain of $1 as disappointing University of Michigan data and somewhat anchored long-term inflation expectations softened the yields.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 53.3 -- near record lows-- in its final March reading from the prior reading of 55.5. One-year inflation expectations edged higher from 3.4% to 3.8% (forecast 3.6%), while 5-10-year inflation expectations at 3.2% lagged the forecast of 3.5%.

Today, gold, currently 0.90% up at $4530, continues to trade in a choppy and volatile fashion as traders monitor Dollar and oil prices.

This week is a crucial week as nonfarm payroll report will be released on Friday.

Expectations of a weak job report will cushion the downside.

The metal is expected to trade between $4370 and $4610, says Praveen Singh, Head of commodities , Mirae Asset ShareKhan.

The rupee gave up its early advances and slipped to an all-time low of 95.22 during intraday trading on Monday, as higher crude oil prices, persistent geopolitical uncertainties and a firm US dollar continued to weigh on the currency.

Despite opening on a positive note following the Reserve Bank’s move to cap banks’ overnight net open positions at USD 100 million, the domestic unit failed to sustain momentum and dropped sharply, losing 160 paise from its opening level.

In the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee began the session at 93.62 against the US dollar and strengthened further to 93.57, marking a gain of 128 paise compared to its previous close.

Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery added that last week’s price movement in gold pointed to a possible rebound after oversold conditions, but said confirmation would depend on how prices behave this week. Given the rapid flow of developments, he expects continued volatility.

Silver futures advanced on Monday, climbing 0.88 per cent to Rs 2,29,951 per kilogram, supported by ongoing global uncertainties. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, contracts for May delivery rose by Rs 1,997, or 0.88 per cent, with trading activity recorded at 1,327 lots.

Analysts said the uptick was driven by fresh buying interest from market participants, which pushed prices higher. In international markets, Comex silver futures also strengthened, gaining USD 0.92, or 1.32 per cent, to USD 70.68 per ounce.

Gold futures edged higher on Monday, gaining Rs 518 to reach Rs 1,44,800 per 10 grams, supported by renewed buying interest from traders amid firm demand in the physical market. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, April contracts advanced by 0.36 per cent, or Rs 518, with a turnover of 25 lots recorded during trading.

Market participants attributed the uptick to the creation of fresh positions, which lent momentum to prices. In the global market, gold futures also moved up, rising 0.78 per cent to USD 4,528.23 per ounce in New York.

Silver spot (in Rs per kilo) : 227992.00

Standard gold (99.5) : 145631.00

Pure gold (99.9) : 146217.00

Spot silver fell 1.3% to $68.67 per ounce, while platinum edged up 0.3% to $1,868.11 and palladium gained 1% to $1,391.

Market participants now see limited likelihood of a US rate cut this year, as rising energy prices risk feeding into broader inflation and reducing room for monetary easing. This marks a shift from earlier expectations of two rate cuts before the conflict began.
Although inflation typically enhances gold’s appeal as a hedge, higher interest rates tend to dampen demand for the non-yielding asset.

Brent crude prices surged above $115 per barrel after Yemen’s Houthi forces launched attacks on Israel over the weekend, intensifying the conflict and adding to inflationary pressures. The benchmark has risen about 60% in March, marking a record monthly increase.

Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery told Reuters that the broader macro backdrop behind gold’s weak performance is the sharp shift in interest rate expectations.

He noted that the strengthening dollar has been driven by this shift, while gold’s outlook, which had been tied to expectations of lower policy rates under a new Federal Reserve leadership, has worked against the metal.

Gold has fallen more than 15% so far this month, marking its steepest monthly drop since October 2008, largely due to a stronger US dollar. The currency has appreciated by over 2% since the US-Israeli conflict with Iran began on February 28.

Gold and silver prices began Monday’s session on a weaker note on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), as an appreciating U.S. dollar, driven by escalating tensions in the oil-rich Middle East, weighed on bullion.

Gold futures for June delivery slipped 0.68%, or Rs 1,000 per 10 grams, to trade at Rs 1,46,255 per 10 grams in early deals on Multi Commodity Exchange of India. Contracts for April and August maturities also declined by around 0.6% each.

Silver futures for May delivery on the same exchange fell about 0.5%, or Rs 1,059 per kilogram, to trade at Rs 2,26,895 per kg.

According to Choice Broking, silver staged a strong weekly recovery last week after an extended decline, tracking gains in international markets where prices rebounded sharply.

Weakness in US equities supported safe-haven demand, though gold’s appeal showed some moderation amid rising bond yields and firm oil prices.

Gold prices declined on Monday as a sharp rise in energy costs heightened inflation concerns and reduced expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

Spot gold dropped 0.6% to $4,466.99 per ounce as of 0238 GMT, while US gold futures for April delivery also fell 0.6% to $4,496.30.

In global markets, gold settled nearly 2 per cent lower at $4,492.5 per ounce last week, while silver edged higher to $69.79 per ounce.

Bullion prices in India have been supported by continued weakness in the rupee against the dollar, with the currency declining more than 1 per cent last week to close near 94.80. The recent decline in prices was driven by selling from exchange-traded fund investors, muted physical demand, a stronger dollar and elevated US Treasury yields.

Trading volumes are likely to be subdued, with domestic commodity markets set to remain shut on March 31 and April 3 due to Mahavir Jayanti and Good Friday.

In the domestic market, gold futures ended last week slightly lower at Rs 1.44 lakh per 10 grams, while silver closed higher, gaining Rs 1,182, or 0.52 per cent, to Rs 2.27 lakh per kilogram on the Multi Commodity Exchange.

Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services, said attention will remain on developments in West Asia, noting that any escalation or easing of tensions could push financial markets in either direction. He added that investors will also track key data releases, including manufacturing PMI figures from major economies, inflation readings from Germany and the Eurozone, as well as US consumer confidence, nonfarm payrolls and employment data due later in the week.