Coronavirus update: Delhi experiencing a second wave of COVID-19? 4 reasons experts aren't too worried

From being considered a COVID fighting model for other states to recording its highest 1-day spike in over months, the National Capital's fight with COVID-19 is far from over.

The city recorded a 50% increase in the presence of active cases recently, with authorities pushing for aggressive testing measures. to cope with the pandemic. The news comes after reports of resuming the city's lifeline metro services.

The city's second serological survey, conducted in the early weeks of August also revealed that nearly 28.8% population had been exposed to the virus. While a resurgence of cases was expected, doctors feel that Delhi is now on the brink of experiencing a possible second wave. The city's case history also gives us an example of what other states could witness as well, even as some worry we haven't yet touched the peak.

(Image used for representational purposes only)

However, not all doctors are worried. Some even suggest that even though the second wave means the virus is very much thriving in the city, it couldn't be possibly as bad as the earlier months.

Dr T. John Jacob, former Director-General of the Indian Council of Medical Research is of the view that even if Delhi's cases continue to increase, it is unlikely to be threatening. In an interview with The Print, he said, “We have a financial epidemic along with the coronavirus epidemic. Cases will increase with Metro opening but unlikely that we will see a peak like June. Even if we see a peak in September, it will be a small one but not like June when cases were above 3,000,”

Here are four reasons why

One of the biggest reasons for the recent spike has come with the increase in the number of tests conducted in recent weeks. While testing touched a high in the months of June and July, experts believe that fewer tests were being conducted in the month of August. Now that testing has been ramped up again, the caseload is now shooting up. Delhi is testing in an aggressive manner now, which remains to be one of the highest in the country. While tests have brought forward high spikes, the positivity rate (which determines the number of people infected in a given population sample) has lowered down, much like the national average, which doctors feel is an encouraging news.

Some also say that the trend was expected to happen with the change in season, public spaces reopening and start of the transport system, which would make authorities better capable to deal with any crisis, hopefully.

The pandemic put the city's and the country's worst fears to the ground in the last months- a healthcare system on the brink of collapse. While doctors struggled to keep up with the case volumes, people often found it hard to get testing and admission done. It was also considered to be one of the reasons for the rise in numbers during the peak. However, in a positive difference, experts believe cities like Delhi are now better prepared to handle the pandemic and all the dangers it could bring forward. From new hospitals, dedicated COVID facilities, segregating caseloads and most importantly, facilitating easy testing would help curb the pandemic to a certain extent.

ICMR has also granted authorisation to private medical facilities to conduct antibody tests, which could also help map out the spread of infection and provide serosurveillance.

Even though the recent spurt in cases have given rise to the number of hospital queries and admissions, some doctors say that there's a difference in the type of cases coming through. Not only did Delhi's serosurvey reveal the presence of asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases, but the severity and complications of the disease has also come down. According to experts, hospitalisation cases have increased in the past month but most cases are mild or moderate. Admissions with co-morbidities are also fewer than before. Delhi's policy of home isolation is also proving to be successful, just like before.

Any pandemic is known to affect in waves and tides, much like any natural discourse. Delhi isn't the only city to have witnessed a COVID wave in the recent months- cities in Italy, China, Spain and even Britain have been impacted too. The new COVID mutation and reinfection cases have also added to the worry. However, it would still be too early to term this resurgence a downfall. Clinically, a second wave is not as different from the first one but it is still too early to call it deadly.

Nonetheless, while life begins to resume back for citizens, it's important that we don't treat the lockdown as a thing of a past. The virus might continue to stay with us for a long, long time, vaccine or not. Hence, we need a more tactful and better preventive approach to stay safe from the virus. Wearing masks, frequent disinfection, sanitization, avoiding crowding and social distancing still needs to continue for the pandemic to truly wane away.