Assam Exit Poll 2026 Live Updates: BJP sweep in Assam with 92 seats, pollsters predict

"The BJP is going to sweep the elections in West Bengal, Puducherry and also Assam, and we are sure that even in Tamil Nadu, the BJP-NDA government will come into power. We don't say that exit polls are wrong or correct. We only wish, and we hope that the same exit poll results will be repeated in the real counting on 4th May... As far as Keralam is concerned, definitely the BJP will increase its share of seats," he said.

"Exit polls are not exact polls. We will have to wait till the 4th for the actual results... It is prepared by taking the opinion of a few thousand people. Sometimes it is absolutely correct, sometimes it is opposite, so I do not consider today's exit poll to be completely accurate, nor do I completely reject it. We will have to wait till the 4th... Regarding Assam, I think there will be a close contest between the NDA and non-NDA... As far as we are concerned, I think the AIUDF will get 12 seats. Talking about Bengal, except for 2, everyone has given the NDA a majority. I do not think that will happen there, I think Didi will come back there," he said.

"Exit polls may not be perfect, but BJP and NDA expect strong results in Assam. Voters have backed the BJP for development, identity, and leadership under Narendra Modi and Himanta Biswa Sarma, giving what is set to be a historic mandate for a third term... In Bengal, too, people have voted against Mamata Banerjee’s 15 years of corruption and syndicate rule. Despite TMC’s attempts to create fear, voters came out boldly, strengthening India’s democratic process," he said.

"I don't pay much attention to exit polls, but the common man didn't vote for the BJP this time. I know this because elections are fought on issues. The BJP gave us a vision document for 10 years, but none of its promises was fulfilled. Instead of good times, bad times came for Assam. Unemployment is a major issue in Assam, with more than 3.3 million unemployed youth. Nothing was done about that. Because of this, change was needed. None of this happened. There's more corruption than before, and all the promises made haven't been fulfilled," he said.

Exit polls suggest that the BJP-led NDA is on track to retain power in Assam, following the completion of polling across four states and a Union Territory. According to Axis My India, the BJP is projected to win 88–100 seats, while Congress is likely to secure 24–36 seats in the 126-member Assembly, which went to polls on April 9.

Another survey by JVC forecasts a similar outcome, giving the BJP 88–101 seats, Congress 23–33 seats, AIUDF 0–2 seats, and 3 seats to others. Assam recorded a strong voter turnout of 85.38%, reflecting high electoral participation in the state.

The Axis My India exit poll for Assam suggests a strong lead for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), projecting it to win between 88 and 100 seats. The Congress is expected to trail with an estimated 24–36 seats, indicating a continued advantage for the BJP in the state assembly contest.

The Matrize exit poll for Assam suggests a strong advantage for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), projecting it to secure between 85 and 95 seats. The Congress is expected to come in second with an estimated 25–32 seats, while other parties and independents could collectively win around 6–12 seats, indicating a continued BJP dominance in the state.

One of the most striking aspects of the 2026 Assam elections has been consistently high voter turnout across constituencies. From urban centres to remote rural areas, participation levels have often exceeded previous benchmarks. Seats like Srijangram, Chenga, and Mankachar reported turnout figures well above 90 percent, indicating strong public engagement. While high turnout is generally seen as a positive sign for democracy, its impact on electoral outcomes is not always straightforward. Exit polls will be crucial in interpreting whether this surge reflects support for incumbents or signals a broader demand for political change.

With the NDA having retained power in Assam in previous elections and maintaining a strong organisational presence, exit polls will serve as an early test of its continued dominance. The alliance’s performance across diverse constituencies—ranging from tribal belts to minority-dominated regions—will be closely analysed. While some seats have shown consistent support for the ruling alliance, others remain highly competitive. Exit poll projections will provide the first indication of whether the NDA has managed to consolidate its position or if the opposition has narrowed the gap. The results will shape the narrative leading into counting day.

As exit poll time approaches, attention is turning to key constituencies in Karimganj district like Ratabari and Patharkandi, where the BJP has maintained a steady presence in recent elections. Both seats have seen competitive contests in the past, with close margins and shifting loyalties adding to the suspense this time. In Ratabari, a Scheduled Caste-reserved constituency with a strong working-class voter base, the BJP has historically performed well. Meanwhile, Patharkandi has seen tightly fought battles with near-equal voter splits. Exit polls could offer early clues on whether the BJP’s hold remains intact or if the opposition has managed to make inroads.

Assam’s diverse regional landscape plays a crucial role in shaping its electoral outcomes, and this election is no exception. Variations in voter turnout across regions such as central Assam, lower Assam, upper Assam, and the Bodoland Territorial Region could significantly influence the final result. Some areas have reported sharp increases in participation, while others have seen more moderate changes. These differences may reflect varying local issues, campaign effectiveness, and voter mobilisation efforts. Exit polls are expected to break down trends region-wise, offering a clearer picture of where each alliance stands. Understanding these regional shifts will be key to interpreting the broader electoral narrative.

This election in Assam is unique due to the recent delimitation exercise, which has redrawn constituency boundaries and altered the political landscape. Several seats have seen significant changes in voter composition, particularly in areas with shifting demographic balances. These changes have forced political parties to recalibrate their strategies and candidate selections. As a result, historical voting patterns may not fully apply this time, making predictions more challenging. Exit polls will play a crucial role in offering early insights into how these new dynamics have influenced voter behaviour. Observers are particularly interested in how these changes impact closely contested and minority-dominated constituencies.

At the heart of Assam’s 2026 election is a compelling leadership contest between Himanta Biswa Sarma and Gaurav Gogoi. For Sarma, the election represents a crucial test of his governance record and political strategy, as he seeks to secure another term in office. On the other hand, Gogoi’s emergence as a prominent face of the opposition marks a significant shift in Congress’s approach, signaling an attempt to rejuvenate its leadership. Voters have been weighing continuity against change, making this a defining battle. Exit polls are expected to provide the first indication of which leader may have gained the upper hand.

Assam’s record-breaking voter turnout in the 2026 assembly elections has become a major talking point as the state awaits exit poll results. A surge in participation often signals heightened public engagement, but it does not always clearly indicate which way the mandate might tilt. Analysts are closely examining which regions contributed most to this increase and whether it reflects support for the incumbent government or a desire for change. The rise in turnout across key districts, especially in central and lower Assam, adds complexity to predictions. Exit polls are expected to shed some light on how this unprecedented voter participation may translate into electoral outcomes.

The intense campaign season in Assam has given way to an unusual calm, but beneath the surface, political chatter is far from over. As the dust settles after voting, attention has turned toward exit polls that are expected to provide early indicators of how the electorate has voted. Party workers are informally assessing booth-level feedback, while voters are actively discussing possible outcomes. Social media platforms are buzzing with predictions and debates, reflecting the high stakes of this election. Though the silence on the ground may suggest closure, in reality, this is the beginning of a new phase where narratives begin to take shape ahead of official projections.

Guwahati, Assam: Chief Election Commissioner Anurag Goel told news agency IANS, "We hope that the result will be available to you by the evening of the 4th, because this time some new processes have been introduced. then in such cases the Control Unit is again taken for verification in the next round, which may extend up to 6–7 pm."

Once responses are collected, they are not directly used as final results. Pollsters apply statistical weighting to correct for imbalances in responses, such as underrepresentation of certain genders, castes, regions, or turnout patterns. This adjusted data is then converted into vote share estimates. Finally, complex models are used to translate vote shares into seat projections, which is especially difficult in India’s first-past-the-post system where small vote shifts can change outcomes significantly.

With "dhul and pepa" echoing through the air and the fragrance of "kopou phool" heralding the arrival of spring and Bihu, Assam is also witnessing a parallel rise in political heat, as the state’s electoral battleground begins to intensify.

The battle is far from routine. It is a defining contest that could reshape the state’s political landscape, a test of whether the BJP can finally secure a majority on its own with a high-stakes face-off between Himanta Biswa Sarma and Gaurav Gogoi, and a campaign charged with emotive issues ranging from identity politics to the Zubeen Garg death probe.

At the heart of this election lies a deeper churn in Assam’s politics. The BJP is looking to consolidate its gains through governance, welfare outreach and its "jati, mati, bheti" plank, while the Congress is attempting a reset by projecting new leadership and stitching alliances to tap into anti-incumbency and social coalitions.

Adding a new layer to this contest are the post-delimitation realities, which have redrawn constituency boundaries and altered the electoral arithmetic, particularly in minority-dominated seats. These changes, alongside evolving voting patterns, make a look at past election trends crucial to understanding what lies ahead.

Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Tuesday accused West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee of a "divisive and communal" remark ahead of the polling for the second phase of Assembly elections.

In an X post, Himanta Biswa Sarma hit out at Mamata Banerjee and alleged that she hinted at fear from one community. Slamming TMC, the Assam CM called West Bengal a "laboratory of appeasement."

Sarma wrote, "Bengal needs to be save, now! The remark of Mamata Didi, that Hindus of Bengal are safe from a certain community only because she is the CM, isn't just disturbing- it's outright dangerous, divisive and communal. A sitting Chief Minister claiming people are 'safe' only because of her, and hinting at fear from one community, is a complete failure of governance and reflects the ground realities of Bengal, how demographic shift has eaten up the land which was once 'Shonar Bangla'."

Exuding confidence in the BJP's victory, he added, "Didi's statement reinforces what the BJP has been saying all along- that under TMC, Bengal has been made a laboratory of appeasement, riots, syndicate, violence, Sandeshkhali style atrocities and fear of the common people. Bengal has had enough of this misrule. It deserves rule of law. 2026 will mark the end of fear. Real poriborton is coming."

Earlier today, Trinamool Congress slammed the BJP's "Bengal Good Bye" remark against Mamata Banerjee, accusing the Opposition party of wanting to "dismantle" the state.

The BJP had shared a graphic with CM Mamata moving out after the election results on May 4, and it read, "Bengal Good Bye." The TMC has interpreted the social media post as an "open threat" to West Bengal's culture and language and alleged that the BJP wants to homogenise the people of the state.

In a post on social media platform X, the TMC reiterated the "Bangla-Birodhi" jibe against the BJP.

This comes amid the exchange of jibes between both TMC and BJP as polling for the second phase of West Bengal elections will take place on April 29, with counting of votes on May 4.

Polling for the first phase of elections witnessed a record voter turnout of 93.19 per cent.

The TMC is aiming to record a fourth consecutive victory, while the BJP looks to secure a mandate this time around after an improved tally of 77 seats in the 2021 polls.

Exit polls are usually released 30 minutes after polling ends in the final phase of an election. For the current assembly elections, projections are expected to start coming in after 6:30 pm, as per Election Commission rules.

The restriction is meant to ensure that voter behaviour is not influenced while polling is still underway. The Election Commission of India enforces this rule under Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951.

Publishing or broadcasting exit polls before the permitted time is prohibited and can attract legal action.

Counting of votes for Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry will take place on May 4. The results for all five states will be announced the same day.