MP may see delayed, weaker monsoon this year

Bhopal: While the southwest monsoon made its onset over Kerala on Thursday, three days later than its normal schedule, Madhya Pradesh is also likely to wait about a week longer before receiving its first monsoon showers.

The countdown to the rainy season has begun in the state, but this year’s monsoon is expected to arrive later than in 2025, when it entered Madhya Pradesh on June 16. Weather experts indicate that the monsoon is likely to reach the state during the third week of June, similar to recent years. It arrived on June 21 in 2024 and June 24 in 2023.

According to the Meteorological Department, it is still too early to announce an exact onset date for the state, but current indications point towards a third-week arrival. Pre-monsoon activities, including thunderstorms and scattered showers, are expected to continue over the next few days. A brief lull in such activity may occur during the second week of June before the monsoon advances into the state.

After two consecutive years of surplus rainfall, Madhya Pradesh may receive below-normal rainfall this season. During the 2025 monsoon period (June 1 to September 30), the state recorded 1,148.1 mm of rainfall against a normal average of 949.5 mm, an excess of 21 per cent. In 2024, it received 1,119.5 mm, or 18 per cent above normal.

The monsoon generally takes two to three days to reach Bhopal after entering Madhya Pradesh. The state capital also enjoyed above-average rainfall in the past two years. Bhopal received 1,085 mm of rainfall in 2025, 13 per cent above its normal average of 956.2 mm. In 2024, the city recorded 1,319.3 mm of rainfall, which was 38 per cent higher than normal.

With favourable rainfall boosting agriculture and water reserves in recent years, attention is now focused on whether this season can match the state’s recent monsoon performance despite forecasts of a delayed and potentially weaker rainy season.

BOX 1: Respite from heat after strong showers a day earlier.

Day temperature in Bhopal on Friday was 35.2 degrees Celsius, five degrees less than normal mark, while night temperature in the city was 20.2 degrees Celsius, seven degrees less than the normal mark.

BOX 2: Forecast for Saturday

A warning of thunderstorm, lightning, hailstorm, gusty winds (50-60 Kmph) was for Mandsaur, Neemuch, Chhindwara and Seoni. Thunderstorms, lightning, gusty winds (50-60 kmph) would be at Ashok Nagar, Shivpuri, Sheopur, Damoh, Sagar.

Warning of thunderstorm, lightning, gusty winds (40-50 kmph) was for Bhopal, Vidisha, Raisen, Sehore, Rajgarh, Narmadapuram, Betul, Harda, Burhanpur, Khandwa, Khargone, Barwani, Alirajpur, Jhabua, Dhar, Indore, Ratlam, Ujjain, Dewas, Shajapur, Agar, Guna, Gwalior, Datia, Bhind, Morena, Satna, Jabalpur, Narsinghpur, Mandla, Balaghat, Panna, Chhatarpur, Tikamgarh, Niwari and Pandhurna.

GFX: MP’s Date with Monsoon

Year-Date

2023- 24

2024- 21

2025- 16

Bhopal’s Date with Monsoon

Year- Date

2023- 25

2024-23

2025-18

*(all dates are of June)