US Election Results: Why Biden saw big surge in Georgia but not in Arizona

Why has Georgia seen such a dramatic turnaround with Joe Biden, at one point trailing by well over 1 lakh votes, closing the gap to barely 18,000 and threatening to overtake Donald Trump? The answer lies in the enormous lead Biden had in absentee mail ballots and the fact that these were the ones being counted towards the end of the process.

As per latest results on the Georgia state department’s website, Trump dominated the votes cast on polling day, with a 60% share to Biden’s 38% (see graphic below). He also had a lead in early voting done in-person, though not by as much. However, the mail ballots were decisively in favour of Biden, who had thus far picked up 64% of those counted. With much of the remaining votes being mail ballots, Democrats and independent analysts see Biden with a very real chance of finishing the winner in the state.

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A similar trend is evident in

North Carolina

as well, with Trump winning nearly 66% of election day votes and a smaller majority of early in-person votes (called absentee one-stop votes in that state), but Biden winning over 68% of mail-in ballots. However, Trump’s lead may be just a little too much for Biden to erase here.

All anecdotal evidence suggests a similar trend in

Pennsylvania

, but a break-up of votes by type could not be obtained for the state.

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In Arizona, in contrast, the race hasn’t moved further and further in Biden’s direction as counting has progressed. This too can be understood by looking at the break-up for different types of votes. Unlike in these other states, in Arizona Biden does not have a commanding lead in early voting. The state does not provide a break-up of results by mail-in and in-person early voting, but in early voting as a whole, Biden had a relatively smaller edge over Trump (53% to 46%). That means it is not necessary his lead will keep increasing or even be maintained as more and more mail-in votes get counted.
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