Trump turnaround: Open the straits, close the war

TOI correspondent from Washington: Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation,” US President Donald Trump said in January 2020 during his first term. It is a line that may be returning to haunt his second term administration.

After weeks of military escalation against Iran alongside Israel, a chastened Trump now appears to be scrambling toward a deal that falls significantly short of the maximalist goals proclaimed at the start of the conflict: no “complete and total surrender” by Iran, no regime collapse in Tehran, no verified dismantling of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, and no surrender of all highly enriched uranium stockpiles.




Instead, the immediate American objective has narrowed to something far more modest: reopening the Strait of Hormuz and preventing a wider global economic meltdown triggered by disruptions in Gulf energy shipments. Trump on Saturday said the Strait “will be opened” under a new understanding with Tehran, ostensibly due to pressure from other Gulf allies.

Ironically, the Strait was functioning normally before the US-Israeli military campaign began.

“An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States, Iran, and various other Countries… Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly,” Trump said on “Truth Social,” the drawdown slipped in between a blizzard of bizarre posts, including one kissing up to China, another raging against Democrats, and one claiming he’s getting younger.

Eviscerated by many allies and critics alike for "getting played" by Iran, Trump dialed down expectations on Sunday morning, saying he has informed his representatives "not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side."

"Both sides must take their time and get it right. There can be no mistakes! Our relationship with Iran is becoming a much more professional and productive one," Trump wrote on Truth Social, according a new respect for Tehran after public grandstanding, negotiating over social media, and threats to annihilate Iran failed to achieve US objectives.

Earlier, in leaks to the American media, US officials claimed that the proposed agreement included an undertaking by Tehran to give up its uranium and unconditionally reopen the straits. But Iran’s state-linked Fars News agency said there were no such commitments, insisting Tehran would continue exercising sovereign control over passage routes, timing, permits and access through the strategic waterway through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies pass.

According to reports circulating in Washington diplomatic circles, the proposed framework could involve a raft of concessions by the US, including partial sanctions relief for Iran, access to some $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets, and a phased reopening of maritime traffic in exchange for renewed but undefined discussions over Tehran’s nuclear program.

Lawmakers on both side of the aisle expressed unease over Trump's concessions, some of them characterizing the deal as more generous to Iran than what President Obama purportedly granted. “Now we’re talking about a posture where we may accept the nuclear material remaining in Iran? How does that make sense at all?” Republican Senator Thom Tillis asked, as Iranians appeared to celebrate coming out on top diplomatically despite being battered militarily.

Unfavorable comparisons to the deal President Obama had clinched with Iran appeared to irk Trump. "One of the worst deals ever made by our Country was the Iran Nuclear Deal, put forth and signed into existence by Barack Hussein Obama and the rank amateurs of the Obama Administration. It was a direct path to Iran developing a Nuclear Weapon. Not so with the transaction currently being negotiated with Iran by the Trump Administration - THE EXACT OPPOSITE, in fact!" he raged.