Nebraska Democrats in tight primary race for state's 'blue dot' US House seat

OMAHA, NEBRASKA: Two Democrats were locked in a tight congressional primary late on Tuesday in Nebraska, where the fate of the state's "blue dot" - a small, but significant factor in presidential politics - took center stage in the race.

State Senator John Cavanaugh and political activist Denise Powell were separated by a razor-thin margin with vote counting ongoing in the state's high-profile 2nd District. The winner will face Republican Brinkner Harding, who ran unopposed in the GOP primary. The Omaha City Council member is endorsed by President Donald Trump.

Democrats are looking to the Omaha-area district, where Republican US Representative Don Bacon is retiring, as one of their top targets in the November general election.

The district also draws national attention because Nebraska is one of just two states that split its electoral votes in presidential elections. The 2nd District has gone to Democratic presidential candidates three out of five times since 2008 - a "blue dot" in an otherwise sea of red.

Some Democrats contended that the very survival of the "blue dot," a point of intense local pride, was at stake on Tuesday.

Some argued that a Cavanaugh primary victory would jeopardize the district's special status because he'd be leaving his valuable state legislative seat, making it easier for Republicans in the Nebraska Legislature to change the law that allows the state to split its electoral votes.

The issue has defined the primary contest, where the leading candidates have much in common ideologically, perhaps more than any other.

Outside an Omaha polling place, Beth Pepitone said she voted for Powell because she wanted someone who would stand up to Trump.

"I just think we're going in the wrong direction and it's very sad," said Pepitone. "I want to preserve the 'blue dot.'"

Opponents say the 'blue dot' is in danger

The Democratic argument against Cavanaugh has little to do with his politics or policies.

His opponents and groups backing them have flooded mailboxes, airwaves and social media, warning that if he wins the congressional primary, Nebraska's Republican governor would appoint a conservative Republican to replace him in the Legislature.

That move, they say, could give state Republicans enough votes to enact a conservative wish list that includes stricter limitations on abortion and transgender rights.

It could also empower Republicans to enact mid-cycle redistricting or change the state's unusual system of splitting presidential electoral votes, some Democrats argue. Republicans failed in 2024 to pass a bill that would have made Nebraska the 49th state to award its Electoral College votes on a winner-take-all basis.

"Our Blue Dot. We fought hard for it. But if John Cavanaugh goes to Congress, it could all fall down," cautions one TV ad by the super PAC New Democrat Majority.

EMILY's List, a national group that supports women running for office, has put its reach and money behind Powell, calling Cavanaugh's candidacy "a gift to MAGA Republicans."

Republican groups also target Cavanaugh

Republican groups have sent out mailers and social media posts claiming Cavanaugh "is in agreement with President Donald Trump" and showing a photo of Cavanaugh overlaid on a photo of the president, making it appear as if the two are standing together.

"Clearly, the Republicans know that I'm the strongest general election candidate," Cavanaugh said. "And so they're trying to hurt me."

"The attacks on Cavanaugh show Democrats and Republicans believe he has the best chance of winning the general election," said Paul Landow, a former Nebraska Democratic Party executive director.

He called the "blue dot" attacks disingenuous, noting Republicans already have a filibuster-proof majority in the Legislature but have still failed to pass key elements of their agenda because it is unpopular even among GOP lawmakers. The argument that a Cavanaugh win could weaken the state's "blue dot" also assumes Democrats won't pick up additional legislative seats this year, he said.

"There's so many things that have to fall into place for this alleged danger to the 'blue dot,'" Landow said. "It's just wild speculation."

The Democratic primary grows contentious

While all the Democratic contenders cite affordability and opposition to Trump administration policies - from immigration and healthcare to military actions - the top contenders began attacking one another more aggressively in the days leading up to the primary.

Powell co-founded Women Who Run Nebraska, a political action committee that supports progressive female candidates, and she has a decade of Democratic political activism. She's never held office but said her deep connections have helped her with independents and third-party voters who make up nearly 30% of the district's electorate.

"My name recognition has increased dramatically," Powell said, adding that "people are really connecting with my message."

The winner of Tuesday's primary will head to a highly competitive general election.

Trump won the district in 2016, and the retiring Bacon, who has clashed with Trump, has held the House seat for five terms.

At an Omaha polling place, independent Hayden Kephart said her biggest concern is inflation. "Obviously, the price of everything has really gone up," she said. "And the price of oil can be a factor in everyday life and travel plans."

Other Tuesday contests

US Senator Pete Ricketts won Tuesday's GOP primary in his bid to seek a full term following his 2023 appointment and 2024 special election victory to replace Republican Ben Sasse.

Ricketts was already looking ahead to an expected general election contest against independent candidate Dan Osborn, an industrial mechanic and military veteran who came within 7 points of defeating Republican US Senator Deb Fischer in her 2024 reelection bid. Cindy Burbank won the Democratic primary.

In the race for governor, incumbent Republican Governor Jim Pillen won his party's primary, while former State Senator Lynne Walz won the Democratic nomination.