disruptive trade war

A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a severe global energy crisis, potentially pushing oil prices to $200 per barrel by late 2026. Wood Mackenzie's report outlines three scenarios, with the worst-case predicting a significant economic contraction. This warning echoes Iran's own earlier predictions amid escalating regional tensions.

A US-Israeli war with Iran has triggered significant global economic fallout, with companies reporting at least $25 billion in losses due to soaring oil prices and disrupted trade routes. Businesses worldwide are implementing cost-cutting measures, including price hikes and reduced production, as the conflict impacts various sectors, particularly airlines.

President Trump's visit to China is overshadowed by the Iran War, which has disrupted global energy supplies and impacted his approval ratings. While trade and Taiwan remain on the agenda, the protracted conflict in Iran presents a significant challenge, with the US struggling to achieve its war aims and facing a decline in superpower status.

Oil prices saw a slight uptick as traders awaited crucial talks between US President Trump and China's Xi Jinping. Lingering concerns over the Strait of Hormuz disruptions and the ongoing Middle East conflict are keeping markets on edge. Despite US pressure, China's continued reliance on Iranian oil adds complexity to potential resolutions.

Global oil prices surged as President Trump expressed impatience with Iran, fueling fears of Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Brent and WTI crude saw significant weekly gains amid uncertainty over the Iran conflict and supply concerns. Despite claims of increased vessel crossings, the Strait remains a critical choke point, with maritime incidents further heightening market anxieties about tight supply.

India has reportedly sought an extension from the US to continue importing Russian oil, with the current waiver expiring May 16. The Congress party has sharply criticized PM Modi, accusing his government of "trading away India’s honour and dignity" and compromising energy security by "groveling before America" for permission.

US President Trump revealed Chinese President Xi Jinping desires the Strait of Hormuz reopened to stabilize global energy markets. Both leaders reportedly agreed on the necessity of this crucial shipping route's resumption. Discussions also touched upon potential increased Chinese purchases of American oil and agricultural products, alongside ongoing tensions regarding Taiwan.

Oil prices edged higher as supply disruption fears from the Iran conflict and falling US crude stockpiles emerged. Brent crude reached $105.83 and WTI $99.23, recovering from a sharp decline after US-Iran negotiation reports. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz persist, impacting global shipments and forcing nations to tap reserves.

Canadian tourism to the US has plummeted by an average of 42%, significantly impacting major cities and industry-linked mid-sized towns. This sharp decline, attributed to President Trump's trade war, also affects business travel, with fewer tech and finance employees journeying for work. The future of cross-border travel recovery remains uncertain under current trade conditions.

India is pivoting towards Europe as traditional partnerships become unreliable. The burgeoning India-Italy relationship, spearheaded by Prime Ministers Modi and Meloni, is central to this strategy. This partnership is building crucial economic architecture, including the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor and a potential EU Free Trade Agreement, positioning Europe as India's primary strategic focus.

According to the government, India has around 60 days of petroleum supplies in various forms including strategic reserves. But if 20% of the world’s crude supply remains disrupted over 2.5 months of the war, where is India getting its oil from?

Escalating Middle East conflict has choked the world's busiest oil passage, pushing crude prices past $100 per barrel with warnings of a surge to $167 or higher. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens a severe energy and trade shock, potentially reducing global trade growth significantly and deepening economic uncertainty worldwide.

India's economy has faced significant challenges from global oil price surges over the past fifty years. From the 1973 Arab embargo to the recent Hormuz disruption, these shocks have impacted inflation and foreign exchange reserves. Policymakers have continuously adapted strategies to manage these crises, balancing economic stability with consumer needs.