IPL 2026 Playoff Qualification Scenarios: With 12 matches to go, PBKS slump to 43.8% as GT and RCB tighten playoff grip - odds for each team explained

With 12 games remaining in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs. GT and RCB have almost qualified while SRH would have to do really badly from here on not to make the playoffs. CSK and RR have a roughly even chance of ending up among the top four in terms of points, even if jointly.

PBKS’ chances have slumped following Thursday’s loss. KKR and DC have really slim chances. There remain 4,096 possible combinations of results, so nothing is for sure yet for any of the eight remaining in the race.



We look at the probabilities:

• GT have a 99.9% chance of finishing within the top four in terms of points (including possible ties), and their chances of ending up in first or second spot, singly or jointly is an impressive 79.1%
• RCB have an 99.3% chance of finishing among the top four by points and a 81.9% chance of being among the top two
• SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four by points is at 79.7% and they have a 36% chance of being among the top two
• Thursday’s loss to MI means PBKS’ chances of ending up among the top four on points have taken a serious beating and slumped to 43.8% and they now have a mere 8.3% chance of finishing among the top two
• At 56.3%, CSK have a better than even chance of getting into the top four but just 22.2% chance of ending up among the top two
• RR have a slightly higher 57% chance of ending up among the top four but only a 17.9% chance of grabbing one of the top two slots
• KKR now have a mere 3.7% chance of making the last four and they can no longer even tie for the top two slots
• DC’s hopes of making the playoffs are at a measly 4.2%. They can at best finish tied fourth with anywhere between two and three other teams

How we arrive at the probabilities: There are 4,096 possible combinations of results remaining with 12 games to go. For each team, we looked at how many of these end up with them being among the top four either singly or tied. We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two either singly or jointly.

For instance, DC finish in the top four in just 172 of the possible combinations of match outcomes, translating to a mere 4.2% chance of being among the top four, and even that is jointly, not singly.



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