Coronavirus vaccine: Why Donald Trump's claim to have a vaccine available by October or November is problematic

As we inch closer to the last quarter of 2020, the race to develop a safe and effective vaccine to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus has intensified. While people across the globe are waiting for a vaccine to magically get rid of COVID-19, unfortunately, the development of a vaccine, distribution logistics and the entire inoculation process, do not function like that. This is precisely why when the US President Donald Trump makes a statement that a vaccine for COVID-19 could be made available in the US, as soon as October, it further misguides the general public.

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It should be noted that with more than 6.4 million confirmed cases, the United States continues to be the worst-hit nation in the world from the coronavirus pandemic, followed by India and Brazil. Ahead of the November election, Donald Trump teased the public about a “surprise” that will be coming very soon, possibly hinting that the U.S. could approve a coronavirus vaccine in October.

“What I said is by the end of the year, but I think it could even be sooner that,” Trump talked about a vaccine at a press conference. “It could be during the month of October, actually could be before November.”

It should be noted that the United States Democratic vice-presidential candidate Kamala Harris has alleged that Trump is trying to earn brownie points for the November poll by exerting pressure on the authorities to launch a vaccine before November. We are listing down three reasons why the statements of an accelerated timeline of the vaccine will prove to be detrimental in this fight against the novel contagion.

Case in point, the national capital. We are witnessing yet another spike in Coronavirus cases in Delhi, after the temporary talks of “reaching the peak”. Authorities have reinstated that one of the major reasons behind the sharp rise in cases is that the general public has become complacent. People have started going out without face covers and face masks, throwing caution to the wind. This situation may also play out in the US if people are given the false assurance of a vaccine in the coming few months.

While we do have 8 vaccines in the last stage of human trials, it is important to understand that it is the most critical and crucial stage of testing. These trials are done on thousands of volunteers to understand the safety and efficacy of the vaccine candidate and usually take at least six months to complete. The vaccine candidate developed by US biotech company Moderna is undergoing Phase III trials, where 30,000 volunteers will be dosed. The other vaccine candidate “very close to the end” as per the US President is the potential vaccine developed by the Oxford University and AstraZeneca. However, none of the vaccine candidates is slated to finish their last stage trials in the month of October, let alone be available for launch.

The development of a vaccine is a long, time-taking and complicated process, which usually takes close to ten years, at the very least. While the timeline of the coronavirus vaccines has certainly been accelerated owing to the exceptional work of scientists across the globe, they still need more time. A vaccine candidate needs to undergo extensive human trials to weed out any potential side-effects and test its efficacy. Launching a vaccine for public inoculation owing to the political pressure may even lead to severe side-effects. Furthermore, if a vaccine is rushed out too quickly, it may dissuade the general public for getting vaccinated because of the safety concerns.