Why rising peacock population in Kerala is worrying scientists

Call it a miracle or a random impact of weather change — the peacock has become ubiquitous in Kerala. It’s no secret that India’s national bird, the ‘peacock’ (aka Paravani) — known as the vehicle of Lord Karttikeya (aka Skanda or Muruga) and Goddess Saraswati and which represents the beauty and power of Krishna — is considered a major deity in the region. In fact, on a full moon night in the Tamil month of ‘Thai’, generally around January- February, hundreds of people walk with kavadi (kanwar in Hindi) to the main temple on a hillock at Palani. While the kavadi size varies, it is bedecked with peacock feathers.Curiously enough, despite such a strong connection, the peacock has never been native to ‘God’s Own Country’. It's habitat is generally open, arid land.It is only in recent years, say experts that the Indian peafowl (Pavo cristatus) — peacock is commonly used to refer to both sexes, even though only males are pea-cock while the females are pea-hens, together called peafowls — can now be spotted in almost every district of Kerala.This is not particularly good news, according to the recently-released State of India’s Birds 2023 report. “While my relatives are happily sharing pictures and videos of it on WhatsApp, I keep warning them that this is not a good sign,” says Vivek Menon, executive director, Wildlife Trust of India, at the launch event of the report on August 25. “The fact that peacocks are being found in a heavy rainfall state like Kerala means aridity overall is increasing.” medium nocaption103310348Kerala not just announces the onset of monsoon for India, but it also receives about three times the national average rainfall. That too has been changing over the years. According to a 2014 study, "Spatio-temporal Analysis of Rainfall Trends Over a Maritime State (Kerala) of India During the Last 100 Years", there is a significant (99%) decreasing trend in most of the regions of the state, especially in the months of January, July and November. Madhavan Rajeevan Nair, former secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), tells this correspondent that while the data for a 100-year trend analysis shows a negative trend, the magnitude of decline is more profound in recent years.This however is not just a Kerala problem. Experts say that the trend can be observed in the Himalayan region as well. It also corroborates with a June 2020 paper, "Is the Indian Peafowl Pavo Cristatus Moving Higher Up in the Mountains?" According to it, a “majority of the sightings [of the peafowl] from higher elevations were from recent times, not earlier than 2010”.While it mentions that an increase in birdwatchers and better coverage can be one of the reasons for these sightings, it is not that an “iconic species like the Indian peafowl would not have been missed by birders prior to 2010. Hence, there is a likelihood that the species is responding to rapid changes in climatic conditions, which have accelerated in the present century.” medium103342061Why Indian birds are decliningAccording to the State of India’s Birds 2023 report, 60% of India’s bird species are showing long-term declines (i.e. change over 30 years) — out of 348 species that could be assessed for long-term trend. And 40% of species are declining currently (i.e. annual change over the past eight years) — out of 359 species assessed for the current annual trend. The declines, however, are not spread uniformly across different types of species, but examining different groups that share common characteristics reveals informative and startling patterns.The category of birds that are a major cause of worry are the habitat specialists, birds which can be found in the grasslands and other open habitats like wetlands and woodlands. (For example, Indian courser that typically lives only in lightly grazed grasslands and adjacent fallow land; or the white-bellied woodpecker that requires large trees, mostly found in the old-growth forests of the Western Ghats). These are declining most rapidly. While habitat destruction is seen as an immediate cause of decline in bird population, they also warn of the disastrous effects of changing rainfall patterns resulting in drought. For instance, even though large and conspicuous water birds like storks, cormorants and pelicans are doing well in general — so much so that a ‘bird sanctuary’ in India is often synonymous with a nesting colony of large water birds — certain species have witnessed deaths due to paucity of rainfall.The report states that a good number of water bodies in southern India, which is one of the strongholds for spot-billed pelicans, has been hit the worst due to the droughts in recent years, particularly the fishery in south-eastern Karnataka. Such natural calamities majorly disrupt food resources, thereby increasing stress to the dependent species, causing starvation and deaths. medium nocaption103342116It also notes that spot-billed pelicans are rapidly declining due to nematode and trematode parasites that infest its alimentary canal, potentially causing infected birds to starve to death. “Such infestation may have been the main cause of death for hundreds of pelicans found dead between 2015 and 2023 in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh [both being strongholds for the species],” the SoIB 2023 reports.While large water birds like glossy ibis and black-headed ibis (which are on the brink of extinction world over) have increased dramatically over the past three decades in India (by over 130% and 80% respectively), Eurasian spoonbill has seen a decline by over 50% in the long term and 6% annually since 2015. The SoIB 2023 Report attributes habitat loss, dwindling fish populations, changing agricultural practices and free-ranging dogs as some of the major causes. In urban areas, habitat loss is often driven by poor planning and a lack of public or scientific consultation when wetlands are developed by civic bodies.Typically, flocking water birds like ducks need mainly submerged habitats. India hosts eight resident and 35 migratory species. These occupy a range of habitats, including inland lakes and tanks, submerged paddy fields, rivers, forest pools and coastal lagoons. “There are no systematic studies on the causes of decline of wide-ranging ducks in the country. For winter migrants, key threats could be in their breeding and/or staging grounds. However, several resident species are also in decline,” the SoIB 2023 report notes.Dr Ritesh Kumar, director, Wetlands International – South Asia points to the "worrying" status of many wetland birds, including ducks and shorebirds. “All this points to the conservation needs of their habitats and ecological corridors,” he says.For instance, Uttar Pradesh’s Haiderpur Wetlands, a Ramsar site (wetland designated as one of international importance under the Ramsar Convention), which has been in the eye of the storm since January 2023. The wetland is fed by the Ganga and a small tributary and has Bijnor Barrage as its southern edge. Each year it is a haven for migratory birds that are seen in thousands and is a wintering site for a large number of ducks. While some species are stable, some like Greater Crested Grebe, Merganser, Common Coot, Common Teals and Bar Headed Geese are declining more rapidly.“Sadly, the presence of migratory birds is never a factor in the release of water through the barrage,” says Asheesh Loya, an avid birder and conservationist. “During monsoon the authorities sometimes open it to let out excess water, or when there is pressure from local farmers who want to do farming. On January 12 this year, the authorities released water and it emptied out completely in three days. There were almost 40,000 water and wetland-dependent birds of approximately 90 species. In fact, in some cases, even the eggs were washed away.” medium nocaption103342138What nextWhile the report mentions that changing temperature is one of the major threats, it hardly makes any linkages to changing precipitation and the dwindling bird numbers. “The report only points at the general trends. To exactly correlate bird numbers with the precipitation change, it will need more research. That is, in fact, one of our recommendations,” says Neha Sinha, head, Policy and Communications, World Wide Fund for Nature-India (WWF-India). “We also need to research the kind of impact the increase in numbers of one bird species will have on another species.”The report, however, specifies that the presence and absence of certain species indicates habitat changes, signalling the need to conserve remaining tracts of natural habitat and restoring degraded lands to counter effects of climate change. By its own admission the report states that the questions regarding small-scale changes in bird populations and their causes “require a deeper investigation of local systems. It is therefore important to carry out targeted, systematic, periodic monitoring of bird populations, using consistent methods, over long periods of time. Moreover, monitoring changes in other factors such as disturbance, climate, and land-use is also crucial to building a deeper understanding.”How significant is the report? Pia Sethi, senior fellow, Centre for Ecology Development and Research, feels it is a deep dive in terms of which birds are high priority and low priority in terms of conservation. “Also, what’s amazing is that this report outlines a number of threats and it identifies research gaps and areas where more research is required. There is a wealth of information to be taken away from the report.”The writer is an independent journalist