Madhya Pradesh assembly elections: Winds of change in saffron citadel?

NEW DELHI: The Election Commission on Monday announced that the Madhya Pradesh assembly election will be held in a single phase. All 230 seats will go to polls on November 17.

The counting of votes will be done on December 3, along with Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and Telangana.

An entrenched BJP is up against a resurgent Congress. But BJP has to deal with another major challenge: tussles that have erupted within its own ranks. It could be a make-or-break battle for many heavyweights in the state

Where they stand
BJP
The party is fighting the fatigue factor of being in office for more than 18 years as well as factionalism and a resurgent Congress. Its central leadership took over the reins about six months back and has fielded seven MPs, including three Union ministers, and propped up multiple faces for the CM’s chair. Shivraj Singh Chouhan, chief minister for four terms, faces the biggest challenge of his political career.

Congress
It has sniffed the winds of change and hopes to sail past the majority mark to avoid a repeat of 2020, when Jyotiraditya Scindia’s rebellion toppled its government. It is seeking retribution with the old guard of Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh leading the charge. The party seems to be missing a strong second rung though its Gen Y is raring to make a mark.

Key Issues
Anti-incumbency: BJP has been in office for over 18 years. While it is credited with ridding MP of the Bimaru tag, voter fatigue can have a snowballing effect. First-time voters would have seen the BJP government all their lives and are questioning it on jobs. If anything, anti-incumbency seems stronger this time than in 2018, when it lost.

Corruption: The long shadow of the Vyapam scam continues to chase BJP. Add to that a string of alleged scams in patwari recruitment, Mahakal Lok construction, and ration distribution. PCC chief Kamal Nath has branded it the “50% commission government”. BJP though accuses the 15-month Nath tenure of Rs 15,000-crore corruption.

Agriculture: It has been winning Krishi awards, and topped the country in wheat production, but not all seems to be well in MP’s farmlands, and that is a pressure point in a state with 70% agrarian population. Unseasonal rain, floods, and an unusually dry August have hit farmer incomes while input costs are rising. Early-sown variety of Kharif soybean, for instance, has seen production plummet by half.

Tribals: The 47 tribal seats (20%) have always proved to be the tipping factor in MP elections. In 2018, BJP lost 31 of these seats to Congress and has been trying desperately ever since to regain lost ground. But the Sidhi episode, where an alleged BJP worker urinated on the face of a tribal, weighs heavily on the saffron camp.

Main players
Shivraj Singh Chouhan | BJP
BJP has propped up multiple CM faces and four-time CM Chouhan is, for the first time, not seen as the undisputed name for the post. But don’t count him out. His ‘you will miss me’ remark wasn’t a farewell pointer.

Kamal Nath | Congress
Forced to bow out as CM in 15 months, he’s trained his guns on the “purchased BJP government”. By holding religious gatherings, the ‘Hanuman bhakt’ hopes to counter BJP’s Hindutva theme as he makes a spirited bid to return as CM.


Jyotiraditya Scindia | BJP
His 2020 googly stumped Congress, but he is now on the reverse side of the fence this time. He may have to make his assembly poll debut. A potential CM face, his team has upset old BJP equations.

Narendra Singh Tomar | BJP
A wild-card entry, his surprise presence in the state fray is seen as a sign that the party may be looking beyond Chouhan.