US movie theatres are hoping the lightning-in-a-bottle magic of last year's "Barbenheimer" phenomenon can strike again this weekend, with the simultaneous release of two of 2024's most hyped films: "Wicked" and "Gladiator II."
"Wicked" is the movie adaptation of the hit Broadway musical, starring pop sensation Ariana Grande, while "Gladiator II" marks Ridley Scott's return to ancient Rome, 24 years after his epic original won the Best Picture Oscar.
Whether audiences will embrace the tongue-in-cheek "Glicked" (or "Wickiator") memes being hopefully circulated by marketing departments -- or even dress up in witch hats and togas -- remains to be seen.
But cinema lobbies and shopping malls across the country are being daubed in the pink-and-green shades of the "Wicked" witches, and kitted out with cardboard miniature Colosseums, ahead of a period that analysts say will be crucial for the industry.
"I am certain that this is going to be the biggest Thanksgiving the industry has ever seen," said Jordan Hohman, an executive at Phoenix Theatres.
"Wicked" alone is "the biggest opening film in terms of advance sale tickets" in the US chain's 24-year history, currently pacing 63 percent ahead of "Barbie," added president Cory Jacobson.
While rival Hollywood studios have traditionally been wary of launching two major films on the same weekend, the record-breaking summer of 2023 showed it can be mutually beneficial -- with the right movies.
Like "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer," the female-skewing "Wicked" and male-focussed "Gladiator II" are "oriented to different audiences," said analyst David A. Gross, of Franchise Entertainment Research.
"Wicked" has inspired promotional tie-ins like a makeup line and a cupcake kit, while "Gladiator" ads have been ubiquitous during NFL telecasts.
"There is zero issue in terms of stepping on each other's feet," said Gross.
Still, matching the heady heights of "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" will be a tough ask. Those films took $245 million combined on their opening weekend in North America alone.
"Barbenheimer was an example of two films massively over-performing... an unexpected best-case scenario," cautioned Daniel Lora, senior VP of content strategy for Boxoffice Media.
But part of the industry's current bullishness comes from another massive film, Disney's "Moana 2," which will join "Wicked" and "Gladiator II" in multiplexes just a week later.
"I don't think this is a two-picture experience. I think it's a three-picture experience," said Jacobson.
- Marketing blitz -
Should the next few weeks live up to hopes, it will come at a much-needed time for Hollywood.
Despite a profitable summer featuring hit sequels like "Inside Out 2" and "Deadpool & Wolverine," 2024 has been a mixed bag for an industry still dreaming of a return to pre-pandemic numbers.
The first five months of the year were hampered by a thin release schedule, stemming from the production delays caused by Hollywood strikes and Covid.
The fall has also been a disappointment, with box office dud "Joker: Folie A Deux" foremost among a series of flops and middling releases.
But the early signs for this weekend look promising.
"Gladiator II" opened in dozens of other countries last week, taking a whopping $87 million overseas. Paramount will be hoping for similar numbers in the US this weekend.
"Wicked," from Universal, the studio behind "Oppenheimer," is predicted to take north of $100 million this weekend in North America alone.
Both movies have benefited from long, expensive marketing campaigns.
At a major Las Vegas movie theater convention in April, Paramount began their annual presentation with an executive riding into the Caesars Palace arena on a chariot flanked by Roman soldiers.
Universal's presentation ended with thousands of plastic flowers held aloft by audience members to create a giant green-and-pink "Wicked" themed electronic lightshow.
Eight months later, both studios will learn if those strategies have converted into ticket sales.
"When something really catches fire, and it's not just a marketing campaign flogging it, honestly it can just take off and go higher than anybody can predict," said Gross.
"So let's see what happens."
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