Phase 4 of 2019 Lok Sabha polls: BJP fights to defend its dominance in Hindi belt

NEW DELHI: In the fourth phase of seven-phase Lok Sabha polls, 72 constituencies spread across nine states are going to poll on Monday.
This phase also signals the entry of polling in the central Indian states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, which played a pivotal role in BJP’s performance in the last general elections. In this phase, BJP will be defending 6 seats in Madhya Pradesh and 13 seats in Rajasthan.
This phase will also mark the conclusion of polling in Maharashtra.In its final phase, the six high-profile constituencies of Mumbai city will be going to polls.
Lok Sabha elections phase 4 live updates
In Uttar Pradesh, the saffron party will be challenged by Mahagathbandhan to retain the 12 seats it won in 2014.
Maharashtra
In 2014, the NDA alliance won all of the 17 seats – while the Shiv Sena won 8 seats, the BJP was able to secure victory on the remaining 9 seats.
In this phase, the city of Mumbai, with six high-profile constituencies, will feature several high profile candidates.
The constituency of Mumbai North Central will witness the clash of the daughters of two icons of the yesteryears. From Congress, the daughter of the late Bollywood actor Sunil Dutt will pose a challenge to Poonam Mahajan, the daughter of late BJP leader Pramod Mahajan.
In North Mumbai, BJP defeated Congress’s Sanjay Nirupam by a massive margin of 47% votes in 2014. This time, by fielding actor Urmila Matondkar, the Congress has ensured that the saffron party has a fight on hand.
The South Mumbai seat is home to the business districts of Colaba and Zaveri Bazar. Congress has fielded Milind Deora, who has been endorsed by Reliance Industries chairman Mukesh Ambani, from this seat. Deora will be hoping to score on the “resentment” against the NDA government following the implementation of the GST and demonetisation schemes.
Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan
The victory of Congress party in the last year’s assembly elections in these two states has once again rekindled hopes for the party here. However, it is to be seen if the party is able to translate its assembly election success in the general elections.
In 2014, the BJP won five of the six seats going to poll in Madhya Pradesh in this phase. The sixth seat was won by Congress leader and now state chief minister Kamal Nath. However, a look at the vote share from 2014 reveals that unlike the other constituencies in the Hindi belt, where BJP registered decisive victories, the competition on these seats was far closer -- in three of these six seats, the Congress lost by a difference of around 10% votes.
In Rajasthan, the Congress will be facing a tougher task to wrest the 13 seats going to poll in phase four. The saffron party won eight of these thirteen seats by a margin of more than 20% votes. It won the Rajsamand seat by more than 40% votes.
In this phase, all eyes will be on the constituency of Jodhpur, where Congress leader and Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot has pitted his son Vaibhav Gehlot against Union minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat. In Barmer, the son of former defence minister in the NDA government Jaswant Singh, Manvendra Singh will be contesting on Congress ticket against BJP’s Kailash Chaudhary.
Uttar Pradesh
Of the thirteen seats going to poll in this phase, the BJP won 12. Samajwadi Party’s Dimple Yadav won the Kannauj seat.
However, the SP-BSP-RLD alliance will make it tougher for the BJP to retain the seats it won in 2014. An analysis of vote share reveals that if Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party were in an alliance in 2014, they would have won 7 of the 13 seats going to poll in this phase.
On three other seats, won by BJP by a margin of around 10% votes in 2014, the Mahagathbandhan is expected to give a tough fight to the saffron party.
Interestingly, BJP has dropped four of the 12 sitting MPs this time and decided to field fresh faces. A step which is being perceived as an apparent effort to counter the anti-incumbency factor against it.
Some of the prominent candidates in the race are Dimple Yadav, former union ministers Salman Khurshid (Farrukhabd) and Sriprakash Jaiswal (Kanpur) of Congress, UP Cabinet minister Satyadev Pachauri (from Kanpur), Sakshi Maharaj of BJP (from Unnao) and Annu Tandon of Congress (from Unnao).
West Bengal
This phase marks the entry elections into the bastion of Mamata Banerjee -- south Bengal. Of the 34 seats won by TMC in 2014, 30 were from this region.
In this phase, Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress won six of the eight seats. The remaining two seats were won by BJP and Congress.
Asansol is one of the two seats won by BJP in West Bengal in 2014. This year, the party will find it tougher to retain the seat after Trinamool Congress decided to field actor Moon Moon Sen against the incumbent MP Babul Supriyo.
In 2014, on all the six seats won by the TMC, CPM gave a tough fight to the Banerjee's party. It lost four of these six seats by a difference of less than 10% votes.
In Bihar, five constituencies will be going to poll in this phase, including Begusarai where the former president of the Jawaharlal Nehru Student Union, Kanhaiya Kumar, is contesting on a CPI ticket against BJP's Giriraj Singh and RJD's Tanweer Hassan. All these five seats were won by NDA in 2014 – BJP won three seats, while the Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok JanShakti Party clinched the remaining two.
This phase will also mark the conclusion of voting in Chhattisgarh with polls scheduled on six constituencies. The other two states participating in this phase of polling are Jharkhand, three seats.
In Jammu and Kashmir, Kulgam will go to polls as part of the second leg of voting for the Anantnag constituency.