‘Kairana model’ comes up for vote today

The opposition’s ‘Kairana Model’ will be put to the test against BJP’s nationalistic pitch and appeal for a grand Hindu polarisation as eight seats of Uttar Pradesh’s Wild West go to the polls in the first phase on Thursday. In the fray are three Union ministers and the father-son duo of Ajit Singh and Jayant Chaudhary. And taking on Ajit Singh in Muzaffarnagar is riot accused Sanjeev Balyan.
The phase, significant in itself, is also expected to set the tone for the remaining rounds. The ruling BJP has maximum stake in this round as it won all eight seats in 2014. A united opposition, however, snatched Kairana in last year’s bypoll. SP, BSP, and RLD had fielded Tabassum Hasan on RLD’s symbol in the byelection. The result: although BJP’s candidate Mriganka Singh polled 49% of the votes, she lost by a margin of 65,000.
This was an absolute ‘unification’ of anti-BJP votes and set the template for the coming together of the opposition for the LS elections. In 2014, besides polarisation of Hindu votes, the saffron party’s cause was further helped by a divided opposition as majority of the seats had a four-cornered contest. However, despite a Modi wave, BJP would have lost four of these eight seats had votes polled by SP, BSP, and RLD candidates been combined.
This time, the three parties have fielded common candidates across the state, but despite their best efforts, some strong Congress candidates have made the battle three-cornered in at least four of the eight seats in the first phase. In Saharanpur, for instance, Congress’ Imran Masood is proving a nightmare for alliance candidate Fazalur Rahman and a ray of hope for sitting BJP MP Raghav Lakhanpal.
Masood lost narrowly to Lakhanpal in 2014 despite polling over 4 lakh votes. He was helped by BSP’s Jagdish Rana, who polled 2.3 lakh votes and Masood’s own cousin, SP’s Shazan Masood (52,000 votes). This time though, Masood will be backed by his once-estranged uncle, five-time MP Rasheed Masood, which makes him a strong contender. The gathbandhan will hope that is a lone example.
HOT SEATS
Saharanpur
Key contenders: Raghav Lakhanpal (BJP), Imran Masood (Cong), Fazalur Rahman (BSP)
2014 result: Raghav Lakhanpal BJP (39.6%) bt Imran Masood Cong (34.1%) by 65,090 votes
The constituency has been in the limelight since BJP and the gathbandhan launched their campaigns here — Yogi from Shakumbhari Devi temple and SP-BSP-RLD from Deoband. In 2014, Lakhanpal won by 65,000 votes in a four-corner contest. Masood, whose family has had a hegemony over the seat, lost due to a split of votes. Lakhanpal is banking on a similar split this time as the alliance candidate is BSP’s Fazalrur Rahman, a local businessman. Mayawati made a direct appeal to Muslims “not to waste their votes”. Muslims account for 41.9% of Saharanpur’s population.
Kairana
Key contenders: Tabassum Hasan (SP/gathbandhan), Pradeep Chaudhary (BJP)
2014: Hukum Singh BJP (50.5%) bt Nahid Hasan SP (29.4%) by 2.36 lakh votes
The Kairana bypoll last year was a litmus test for a fledgling SP-BSP-RLD alliance and a victory for RLD’s Tabassum Hasan as a consensus candidate paved the way for the gathbandhan. Tabassum is back as an alliance candidate, but BJP has not reposed faith in her traditional rival Hukum Singh’s family. His daughter Mriganka, who lost in the bypoll, has been replaced by local MLA Pradeep Chaudhary, a Gujjar. While Tabassum expects the backing of 5.5 lakh Muslims, Chaudhary banks on 6.5 lakh upper caste votes. Therefore, the OBCs — about 6 lakh — may swing the result. Congress’ Jat candidate, Harendra Malik, is expected to spoil Chaudhary’s calculations.