BJP plays catch-up after Congress' headstart with assembly win

Last December, before the assembly elections in five states that were billed as a mood-reader for the

Lok Sabha

polls, Rajasthan was seen as the strongest state for Congress. Now, after three phases of the general election, the perception appears to have swung in favour of BJP.


And like in the assembly elections when BJP gained some ground closer to the polls, Congress seems to have done the same with three days remaining for 13 of the state’s 25 seats to go to polls on April29. Voting in the other 12 seats will take place on May 6.

In the assembly polls, aggressive campaigning by BJP’s star campaigners helped the party get a respectable number of seats. But this time, ticket distribution and efforts of candidates at the local level may eventually give Congress the upper hand. Not all is well in the BJP camp. Former chief minister Vasundhara Raje is hardly campaigning and BJP’s former state chief Om Mathur is missing in action.

On the other hand, CM Ashok Gehlot and his deputy Sachin Pilot are touring Rajasthan together and addressing rallies almost every day. Congress could also take heart from Rajasthan’s recent trend of giving majority to the state’s ruling party in LS elections as well.

However, in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, BJP won 16 seats though the latter was in power in the state. Like the present election which has come after the Pulwama attack and

Balakot

airstrikes, the 1999 poll was fought in the backdrop of Kargil.

In 2014, BJP had won all 25 seats; this time, it is contesting 24, leaving Nagaur to its ally Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP). Congress will surely improve on its tally of zero five years back.

Both parties have closely matched each other’s social engineering in candidate selection. BJP has fielded six Jats and is supporting RLP’s Jat candidate in Nagaur, while Congress has nominated five candidates from the community. Both parties have fielded three Rajputs, two Brahmins, two Vaishyas and two Gujjars/MBC. Congress hasn’t fielded any Yadav, and BJP hasn’t given tickets to any Mali or Muslim. The state has four SC and three ST seats (though Congress has nominated five ST candidates).

In a state that takes a blow virtually every time the armed forces come under attack, BJP is hoping its campaign pitches of decisive action — showcasing the Balakot airstrikes — and Narendra Modi’s leadership will enhance its chances of winning and help it make up ground it lost in the assembly polls.

But farm anger might play against BJP. Widespread agitations by farmers had prompted the Vasundhara Raje government to announce loan waivers in 2018. But it was too little too late. Congress turned it into an election plank and reaped benefits in the assembly polls.

Lack of jobs is another major issue. After coming to power, the Congress raised unemployment allowance for the youth. The NYAY (minimum income support) scheme has helped it sharpen its pitch around key poll issues, like jobs and farm distress.