‘Manoos’ factor key to deciding outcome in Mumbai North-East

MUMBAI: Although BJP can boast of a good Gujarati/Marwari business community votebank in the Mumbai North-East Lok Sabha constituency, it may be the “sons of the soil,” Marathi-speaking voters who will decide the fate of the contenders here. Poll data indicates that nearly half the voters -- 47% -- are Maharashtrian, while around 20% are Muslims and close to 13% are Gujarati/Marwari.A total of 15.6 lakh voters here will get to exercise their franchise on April 29.
Candidates of both leading alliances have begun wooing the 7.3 lakh Marathi voters. It is yet to be seen if the support of Raj Thackeray’s MNS will pull in more Marathi votes for NCP’s Sanjay Dina Patil. In 2009, MNS had fielded its own candidate, Shishir Shinde, for the LS polls and got 1.95 lakh votes. These voters voted for Kirit Somaiya in 2014, when MNS had supported BJP. Somaiya won with a margin of over 3 lakh votes. But this time, MNS functionaries are busy campaigning round-theclock with Patil in his ‘rath.’ BJP candidate Manoj Kotak has also been aggressive in his campaigning, making a lot of visits to the Maharashtrian-dominated pockets of Bhandup, Mulund East, Kanjurmarg, Vikhroli and Ghatkopar West. A party activist said, “The Marathi votebank matters most.”

Kotak’s strength is the alliance with Shiv Sena, which has a good following in two of six assembly segments -- Bhandup and Vikhroli. Maharashtrian voters in these two assembly seats come to 2.8 lakh. Sena MLA Sunil Raut from Vikhroli has pledged support to Kotak and urged the Marathi “manoos” to back BJP-Sena.
While Patil has been playin g the “Marathi” card from Day One, when he filed his nomination and affidavit in the language, his supporters have been reminding voters that “Bhau” is a Marathi “manoos” and “will keep the community’s interests at heart.” Kotak, too, speaks fluent Marathi and knows issues of Marathi locals as he has been a three-term corporator. Pravin Phadnis, a voter. said, “Marathi votes are in high-rises, chawls as well as slum pockets. And Marathi voters do vote.”
But Ajay Govale, a Mulund resident who works for a NGO, said educated Maharashtrians will not be swayed by emotions. “The elections are being fought at the national level. We are not talking about repairing drains or roads but issues of national interest such as GDP, national security, and functioning of the Centre. Voters will elect candidates with vision who can represent them at the Centre.”
Many Dalits here can be counted among Marathi speakers. But the Dalit vote may be divided, said observers, between Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, BJP (backed by Ramdas Athawale) and Cong-NCP (whom smaller RPI factions are supporting, said a Congress worker).
Muslim voters number 3 lakh (around 20% of the electorate) and would be a factor.