MARGAO: As campaigning heats up for the simultaneous
Lok Sabha elections
and bypolls for Shiroda constituency, the electioneering here is a high voltage drama being played out on the streets. The cacophony of voices that has become more pronounced following the switchover of the foot soldiers to rival camps, following the defection of their respective political masters’, has only left political observers confused and the average voter disillusioned.
Political observers feel that with both
saffron
parties, BJP and MGP, besides Congress locked in a no-holds barred battle, it’s a triangular contest for the bypolls, the outcome of which could directly influence the South Goa
Lok Sabha
polls.
Former Shiroda MLA Subhash Shirodkar, who quit Congress to join BJP, thus imposing the bypoll, is now contesting as a BJP candidate against Mahadev Naik, a former BJP minister now fielded by Congress. The stakes have been further raised with BJP’s estranged ally MGP fielding its president Pandurang ‘Deepak’ Dhavalikar.
While the Shiroda seat has turned out to be a matter of prestige for both Congress and BJP, the relevance of MGP as a political outfit hinges on the outcome of the bypolls; a defeat for MGP poses an existential threat for the party, political observers say.
With BJP and MGP fighting a turf war—both saffron parties having nurtured the same constituency of Hindu votes—and Congress threatening to wean away a major chunk of this constituency apart from its traditional “secular” votes, poll pundits say the outcome could swing any way.
Shirodkar represented Shiroda for nearly 24 years as a Congressman before losing to BJP in 2007 with Naik going on to win for two consecutive terms. Shirodkar wrested the seat from Naik in 2017 but soon quit Congress and joined the saffron party in October 2018. Both Shirodkar and Naik have a sizeable personal voter base, which is unlikely to shift loyalties notwithstanding the change in party affiliation of their leaders. “And it is this confidence that led to both leaders deserting their parties so unabashedly and still each claiming to emerge as winner,” a political observer remarks.
Despite criticism against the Dhavalikar brothers of playing family-centred politics, the state’s oldest regional outfit retains its appeal among the Bahujan samaj in Shiroda. If the party begins to play the caste card cunningly well, it could very well sway voters to its side.
On the downside, Dhavalikar is coursing through uncharted waters in Shiroda-—he earlier contested from Priol—and thus it remains to be seen how well he is accepted by voters. “That’s a double-edged sword. It appears to be a disadvantage for Deepak as of now, people who are disillusioned with both Shirodkar and Naik may opt for Dhavalikar as a refreshing change,” a political observer says.
Sources said many from the minority community who were antagonized by both Shirodkar and Naik during their regime, could find an alternative in MGP – “political ideology be damned”. However, if Congress does succeed in retaining its minority vote base, Naik could well upset the chances of both Shirodkar and Dhavalikar.
Dhavalikar feels the “politics of betrayal” played by Congress and BJP will be rejected by voters, even as Naik exudes confidence that his “vikas purush” (the development man) image— referring to the slew of development projects he brought to Shiroda during his stint as minister—will see him pull off a victory.
On the other hand, what could further raise alarm bells for both Dhavalikar and Naik is the role played by state tribal welfare minister
Govind Gaude
in galvanizing the ST community. He has been holding meetings with tribal voters from the constituency in support of BJP.
The complex political matrix has led to a dilemma, more acute for the core workers of both national parties. “I have been with BJP since long and subscribe to the RSS ideology. I have an excellent relation with Naik, but now I can only pity him. It pains me to desert Naik in this election, but I will remain with the party,” says Upendra Gharse (name changed).
Speaking to
TOI during his campaign in Borim, Shirodkar said, “I am really overwhelmed by the sense of loyalty that BJP karyakartas have towards the party. For them the party comes first.” Besides the organizational strength of BJP, Shirodkar said most Congress supporters who were with him earlier were supporting him this time as well. “People want development, and it pays to be on the side of the ruling party.”
Nevertheless, the silent voters, political observers feel, hold the key to the outcome of the election. “The average voter is angry over the turn of events that has led to this byelection. The bottled-up emotions will be vented only on April 23 through the ballot. And it is this section that will determine who wins the prized seat,” a political observer succinctly says.
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