Tamil Nadu exit polls 2026: Kejriwal breakthrough or Prashant Kishor's 'farsh' moment — what will it be for Vijay?

NEW DELHI: Exit poll projections for Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) have thrown up one of the most intriguing questions of the 2026 Tamil Nadu elections: is Vijay on the cusp of a breakthrough like Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi, or will he resemble Prashant Kishor's Bihar experiment that ended in 'arsh se farsh par'.The answer, at least today, depends on which exit poll one chooses to believe. Most projections place TVK in the 10–24 seat range, a significant debut. According to most pollsters Vijay's party will be one that positions it as a spoiler rather than a main contender.P-Marq and Matrize projected 10–12 seats for TVK, while Peoples Pulse gives it a stronger 18–24, suggesting meaningful traction among urban and youth voters.In this scenario, Vijay’s party could end up splitting anti-incumbent votes, indirectly aiding the DMK. But then comes the outlier.Axis MyIndia projected a dramatic surge, giving TVK 98–120 seats - numbers that, if turned into reality on May 4, would catapult Vijay into the centre of Tamil Nadu politics overnight.That would place him in Kejriwal territory: a first-time entrant not just breaking through, but becoming the centre of state politics.And Vijay also has his superstar Thalaivar image - something that has worked in Tamil Nadu for years with the rise of MG Ramachandran and the J Jayalalithaa.However, unlike Delhi in 2013, where Kejriwal rode a singular anti-corruption wave, Tamil Nadu's contest is layered, entrenched in Dravidian politics, strong party machinery, and decaded-old voter loyalties. Even a strong showing for TVK does not automatically translate into power unless it converts popularity into booth-level efficiency, an area where established players like the DMK and AIADMK retain a clear edge.However, if these exit polls turn out to be wrong on May 4, and Vijay's grand political debut becomes a flop show, it would be similar to what we saw last year in Bihar.While there was much discussion around political mastermind Prashant Kishor's debut, his Jan Suraaj Party failed to even open its account in assembly elections.The comparison with Prashant Kishor is instructive in another way. Kishor’s Bihar push aimed to create an alternative political space but struggled to translate visibility into votes at scale. If TVK’s performance remains in the lower range of projections, it may still succeed in altering vote shares and future alignments, without immediately challenging for power.So, is Vijay the next outsider who can convert momentum into mandate, as Kejriwal once did? Or will he fail to make any impact, like Kishor’s early political foray?The answer will only become clear on May 4.