NEW DELHI: The north eastern state of Manipur may well turn out to be the biggest surprise of all in the 2017 Assembly election, with exit polls unable to come to a consensus on who will rule the state.
The CVoter survey predicted that the BJP will emerge as the largest single party in Manipur, dethroning the Congress for the first time in 15 years.
On the other hand, the Axis exit poll gives Congress the lead in the state, with a cautious prediction that it will remain in power. The exit poll predicts 30-36 seats for Congress and 16-22 seats for the BJP. Congress is also expected to win 42 per cent of the vote share.
This is in stark contrast to the CVoter figures, which claim the BJP will likely win 25 to 31 seats, with the Congress trailing second at a probable 17 to 23 seats.
According to Gramener, the BJP and Congress will be closely tied, with the saffron party expected to get 25 seats and the latter winning 24 seats, which could result in a hung house in the north-eastern state. Other parties are expected to get 11 seats.
All exit polls predict huge inroads for the BJP, which had an exceptionally poor showing in the 2012 Assembly election as it failed to open its account. The saffron party did not field a candidate for chief minister, and instead relied on Modi magic during the campaign phase of the 2017 polls.
In the likelihood of a close race between the BJP and Congress, all eyes will turn to the smaller, regional parties in the state to break the stalemate. The BJP could turn to the Naga Peoples' Front (NPF), which enjoys a significant presence in the Naga populated pockets of Manipur, is expected to win three to five seats according to Axis exit poll. The NPF, which heads the government in
Nagaland
, is in an alliance with the BJP since 2003.
Iron lady Irom Sharmila's Peoples Resurgence and Justice Alliance may also play a crucial role if it comes down to the wire.
Exit polls are not foolproof, and have frequently gone wrong in the past, including in Bihar and Delhi in 2015.