Kerala assembly elections: Will the Left create history or become history?

NEW DELHI: It lost Tripura to BJP in 2018. It is no longer a strong contender in West Bengal. It touched historic lows in Parliament. Now, it's fighting to cling on to its last bastion.


The fast-shrinking electoral space of the Left-wing has raised doubts over the survival of a once-significant political force in India.

That's why April 6 elections in Kerala are crucial for the future of

Left

politics.



The single-phase voting in the southern state will not only serve as a litmus test for the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) but may even wipe a political hue off India's electoral map.

Can India really become Left-mukt?
PM Modi and several BJP leaders have been talking of a "Congress-mukt Bharat" for several years, but it is the

Left Front

that is closer to realising this political prophecy.

Power in Kerala has alternated between the Left Democratic Front and the Congress-led

United Democratic Front

for decades.



The southern state has never once re-elected the ruling government in the last 40 years.

Can Pinarayi Vijayan buck this trend?
Opinion polls have predicted a decisive win for the Vijayan-led government in the ongoing elections.

But if history is anything to go by, the results could prove the predictions wrong.

While the Kerala chief minister has been lauded for tackling crisis after crisis — from Nipah virus to corruption allegations to Covid pandemic — the anti-incumbency factor cannot be ruled out.

The Lok Sabha debacle was a prime example of this.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the ruling Left Front put up a dismal performance and managed to win just one out of the 20 parliamentary seats in Kerala.

Since it is the only other major political alliance in the state, the result was a huge setback for the LDF.

The only silver lining was the local body elections in 2020 where the LDF put up a strong show and managed to thwart the anti-incumbency factor.

Regardless, Kerala's long history of see-saw politics is sure to keep LDF on its toes until May 2.

Politically 'Left' behind
For the Left, the Kerala election is not merely a contest to retain power in a single state but a battle for survival in Indian politics.

The Left Front has managed to stay relevant in state elections ever since it took power in Bengal back in 1977.

In early 2001, there were Left governments in as many as three Indian states — West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura. Three years later, the

Left parties

together won a historic high of 59 seats in the Lok Sabha election.



However, things have been on a downward slide since then.

In 2011, a spirited TMC led by Mamata Banerjee brought an end to the 34-year-long Left rule in West Bengal.

A few years later, in Tripura, the BJP ended the 25-year-long Left rule after storming to power in the 2018 assembly elections.

All this while, the Left also kept losing its presence in the lower house, with its seat share dwindling to 24 in 2009, 12 in 2014 and just 6 in 2019.

Interestingly, the Left's political decline in India has been somewhat inversely proportional to BJP's ascend in both state as well as national politics. While it is hard to draw a correlation, it does appear that Indian politics have witnessed a rightward shift over the last decade.

But what about West Bengal?
Besides Kerala, the Left parties are also contending in West Bengal, a state that was once their indomitable stronghold.

But things have changed drastically since they were last in power here.



Ever since the TMC ended the decades-long Left rule in 2011, parties like CPM and CPI have found it hard to hold on to their key bastions.

In the assembly elections, the Left parties saw their seat share decline from 235 in 2006 to just 32 in 2016.

This has been attributed to several factors, such as political dilution due to electoral alliances, the rise of the TMC and BJP, and lack of ideological connection with the voters.

In 2021, the Left Front is contesting in alliance with the Congress and the Indian Secular Front.

But the alliance's prospects appear to be dim as it is considered a distant third in the state which is witnessing a keen clash between the BJP and TMC.

Thus, Kerala is a state the Left would like to keep in its kitty. If it wins, the LDF will surely create history by bucking a 40-year trend. If not, the Left may well fade into history.