Karnataka assembly elections 2023: Impact of Muslim votes

NEW DELHI: Karnataka assembly elections are just around the corner and political parties are going all out and leaving no stone unturned to woo the voters in the southern state.

From high-voltage campaigning to political face-offs and interesting candidate picks, the election season is only getting intense.

Karnataka will go to polls in a single phase on May 10, and the counting of votes will take place on May 13. There are a total of 224 seats in Karnataka. It is the seventh-largest legislative assembly by strength.


Even though the political parties are making all efforts to get the support of three major communities: Lingayats, Kurubas and Vokkaligas, it would be hard to ignore the importance of the Muslim voters whose votes can be vital in this electoral battle.

Here's how Muslim votes can impact Karnataka elections:
Muslim population

Muslims constitute over 13% of the population in Karnataka. The community is important in more than 40 of the 224 constituencies of the state.

In the 2018 elections, Congress and JD(S) fielded 17 Muslim candidates each. The BJP, however, did not field Muslim candidates in 2018.

In 2018 assembly elections in Karnataka, Congress won 80 seats, BJP got 104 seats while JD(S) bagged 37 seats.


While Muslims can be found in all districts of Karnataka, Muslims have a stronger presence in Northern Karnataka especially in Gulbarga, Bidar, Bijapur, Raichur and Dharwad.

Kalaburagi North, Pulakeshinagar, Shivajinagar, Jayanagar and Padmanabhanagar Tumkur, Chamarajpet are the other Muslim-dominated constituencies in the state.

BJP vs Congress

Popular perception goes that BJP is not the first choice of Muslim voters. It is believed that minority community votes, in the assembly elections at least, straight go to the Congress party. This time as well, both Congress and JD(S) are confident that they will have an upper hand in the constituencies with a high Muslim population.

However, BJP leaders believe minority consolidation in favour of ‘secular’ parties in Bengaluru is more a myth than reality.

Congress is the only party that has minority representatives in the lower house with eight legislators which include seven Muslims and one Christian.


The BJP is, however, working to intensify its outreach to 'Pasmanda' Muslims. With 'Pasmandas' often finding a mention in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's speeches, at party forums as well as at government events, and how his government has worked for the deprived without any discrimination.

Split votes?

Congress and JD(S) are also worried that the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), a pro-Muslim outfit will divide minority votes, which would ultimately benefit the ruling BJP.

SDPI this time is planning to make its presence felt in a big way by fielding candidates in 100 seats. With its presence spreading across local bodies (it has two members in the Mangaluru Mahanagara Palike, one each in Shivamogga Mahanagara Palike and BBMP, besides members in city municipal councils of Madikeri, Ullal Chamarajanagar, Bantwal, Kaupu, and Shahpur), SDPI is hoping to open its account in the assembly.

It has identified 65 seats where Muslim voters are more than 20% of the electorate and about 45 seats where minority votes account for 10% to 20%.

With the margin of victory as thin as less than 5,000 votes in about 50 seats in 2018, Congress and JD(S) are jittery over parties like SDPI eating into minority votes.

Key issues

Scrapping 4% quota for the Muslim community in the OBC category and hiking it for the two most politically powerful communities - Lingayat and Vokkaliga - is set to be one of the key issues in the upcoming Karnataka assembly polls.

The government decided to divide a quantum of four per cent equally between the Vokkaliga and Veerashaiva-Lingayat communities. This division will apply to both job opportunities and admissions in educational institutions, with each community receiving a share of two per cent. This decision was well-received by both communities, which hold significant political influence. The Muslim community has been included in the Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) category, which comprises 10 per cent of the population, by the government. While the opposition criticised the move, the Supreme Court observed that the decision appeared to be on "highly shaky ground" and "flawed".

The Congress party has promised to restore scrapped 4 per cent quota for Muslims in Karnataka if it comes to power.

Last year, the Hijab ban in Karnataka kicked started a massive political row. The state government had issued a circular banning hijab in schools and pre-university colleges. The high court upheld the decision of the state government and the issue was later taken up in the Supreme Court and the two-judge bench pronounced its split verdict.

While the BJP believes that the hijab row would be a non-issue, analysts believe the opposition will try to cash in on the controversy.

Either way, whether the Muslim community in Karnataka will support a single party or will its votes will be divided, splitting up the vote share remains to be seen.