Kerala monsoon delay clouds Maharashtra onset; Fadnavis urges farmers not to rush into sowing activities

Pune: Uncertainty over the southwest monsoon’s progress has deepened after it failed to make its normal onset over Kerala by June 1, prompting experts to remain cautious about predicting its arrival in Maharashtra.

Amid the delay, Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis advised farmers against rushing into sowing operations based on pre-monsoon thunderstorms forecast across parts of the state over the coming days.

“Although there is a possibility of thunderstorms in some parts of the state starting from June 1, it has no connection with the monsoon, as the monsoon has not yet arrived in Kerala," Fadnavis said in a message on social media.

"Based on the current situation, it has become clear that the arrival of the monsoon is unlikely in most parts of the state until at least June 10," he said.

Monsoon normally enters Maharashtra after June 5. Pre-monsoon thunderstorms are not linked to the arrival of monsoon.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said conditions were favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of southwest & southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, some parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, some more parts of southwest, westcentral, eastcentral and northeast Bay of Bengal, and remaining parts of southeast Bay of Bengal during next the 2-3 days.

IMD forecast isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds reaching 40-50 km per hour over Konkan and Goa during June 1-4, Madhya Maharashtra on June 3 and 4, and Marathwada during June 2-3. The weather agency also warned of a thundersquall over Madhya Maharashtra on June 3, with wind speeds likely to reach 50-60 kmph and gust up to 70 kmph.

The delay in Kerala's onset has complicated projections for Maharashtra, as the state's monsoon advance is closely linked to the system's northward movement after reaching the southern coast. Meteorologists said a clearer picture on the monsoon progress over Maharashtra is likely to emerge only after the onset over Kerala is officially declared.

An Agriculture department official told TOI, “Farmers will have to wait. At this stage, they should not rush into sowing. Only those crops for which dry sowing (’dhul perani’) is feasible may be considered. Otherwise, farmers should avoid taking up sowing activities at this stage. Sowing should be undertaken only after the required monsoon rainfall is received and favourable soil conditions develop."

An IMD official said, “We cannot say anything about Maharashtra’s monsoon onset until monsoon reaches Kerala. After its onset over Kerala, we continuously monitor the system and then assess how it is likely to progress further.”

On the CM’s advisory against sowing, the official said, "The rainfall expected over the next few days is pre-monsoon activity. This kind of rainfall is not suitable for sowing. For sowing, we need widespread, continuous and adequate rainfall so that sufficient soil moisture is available. Farmers should wait for monsoon rainfall rather than depend on pre-monsoon showers for sowing.”

On the upcoming rain forecast, the official said, “Pre-monsoon showers are likely over parts of Maharashtra, but these will occur in isolated pockets and not uniformly across the state. We have forecast rain activity for Pune from June 3 to June 5.”