MUMBAI:
MNS chief
Raj Thackeray’s unconditional support for Mahayuti in this LS election was prompted by the fear that a defeat this time would have meant the end of the road for the party, feel political observers.
It is believed that Raj would seek his pound of flesh in the assembly and civic elections to be held later this year, but the party’s declining vote share over the years and its decision to abstain from the parliamentary polls for the second time in a row makes it difficult to gauge what the backing for Mahayuti actually translates to. “It will be impossible to measure any vote transfer and analyse the real gain in polling because of MNS’s support,” says an observer.
MNS had put on a stellar show in its maiden entry in both LS and assembly elections in 2009. In the LS polls, all its six candidates in Mumbai secured over 1 lakh votes, cutting into undivided Shiv Sena and BJP’s votes, and won 13 seats in the assembly elections. In Mumbai alone, it secured around 24% votes and prevented the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance from winning 11 seats.
By the time the 2014 LS polls rolled around, its climbdown began. It fielded candidates against Sena and extended support to BJP’s PM candidate Narendra Modi in that election, but its vote share dropped from 4.6% in 2009 to 1.5% and all its 10 candidates faced an embarrassing drubbing. In the assembly polls that year, it won only one of the 209 seats it contested from, and its vote share dropped to 3.2%.
In 2019, the party sat out the LS polls and campaigned widely against BJP and PM Modi. Months later, in the state assembly polls, it fielded 101 candidates but won only one seat. Its vote share dropped further to 2.3%.
It saw a similar decline in BMC polls—its strength dropped from 27 corporators in 2012 to just seven in 2017.
The observer says had MNS fought on one to two seats in this election, it could have polled more votes with Mahayuti’s support, but a defeat would have obliterated the party. Not contesting the election allows Raj to keep his options open if Mahayuti fares poorly, says the observer. “Raj had to take a side, though. Had he remained neutral, he would been marginalised further electorally, especially at a time when his cousin, [Shiv Sena (UBT) chief] Uddhav Thackeray, is taking the lead in the rival MVA and is riding the sympathy wave, becoming a key player in the INDIA bloc.”
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