MUMBAI: With Eknath Shinde in the CM's seat and Uddhav Thackeray left with a handful of MLAs in the Maharashtra assembly, Matoshree faces its worst crisis since the Shiv Sena's inception in 1966.
A series of moves deftly executed by the BJP has left the Sena gasping for breath. That Thackeray had not the foggiest idea of Shinde's rebellion—a Sena strategist admitted sheepishly that by the time party seniors understood the gravity of the situation, the rebels had crossed the border on their way to Surat—shows that the former CM was hopelessly cut off from ground reality, said observers.
Thackeray's immediate task is to stem the tide of intra-party rebellion and stop Shinde from walking away with Balasaheb's legacy. There is a possibility the new formation may put the screws on Thackeray loyalists. And all hell will break loose for Matoshree if the Shinde group claims Sena's poll symbol—in that case, the election commission may freeze it, said experts—ahead of the Mumbai civic election.
There are reports that Shinde will shortly stake claim to Sena Bhavan too, stating that his faction is the 'original' Sena as it espouses Balasaheb's Hindutva. So, Thackeray will have to pull up his socks for a prolonged politico-legal battle which will test his tenacity and acumen.
"Looking at the turn of events the Sena has a bleak future ahead. Bereft of power and with rebels breathing down his neck, Thackeray will have to fight on all fronts," said political analyst Amarendra Nandu Dhaneshwar. "Thackeray needs to sharpen his skills to counter the BJP ahead of the 2024 assembly election," he added.
Shinde's choice as CM is a clear indication that the BJP is keen on formulating a rainbow alliance of castes in rural Maharashtra. The party probably sees Shinde, the rough-hewn Maratha from Satara, as the best bet to reach out to backward communities across the state. However, Shinde's crucial test will be the cash-rich belt of western Maharashtra, which the cooperative czars of Congress and the NCP covet as their bastion.
To counter Shinde, Thackeray will have to get back to Marathwada, which stood by Balasaheb Thackeray for over two decades. Vidarbha too should be on his wish list, said a Sena analyst. "Thackeray will have to nurse the rural heartland…he should give up his old habit of hopping around villages in a chopper…and returning home for dinner," he said.
Thackeray can't ignore Mumbai either. The Mumbai civic elections, to be held sometime in October under Shinde's regime, will be an acid test for the former CM. The MNS is likely to be on board the new BJP-led formation, it is learnt. In a tweet, Raj congratulated Shinde, saying that his ascension as CM is a "matter of happiness" for his party.
"If not a single Sena corporator from Mumbai has defected to the Shinde camp it is because the BMC budget is to the tune of Rs 45,000 crore. However, the civic polls may be a tough task as we have lost power, grassroot workers are demoralised and there is talk of rampant corruption in distributing civic contracts," said a party corporator. Thackeray's hopes now rest on Mumbai's Shiv Sainiks who, when the party is in dire straits, close ranks and back Matoshree to the hilt, said a former BMC official.
However, there are others who say the average Marathi 'manoos' has already left Mumbai in search of an affordable home in Palghar and Virar, thanks to the party’s own functionaries tying up redevelopment projects in their own backyards. “The Sena has shot itself in the foot," said Prasad Patange, a Sena sympathiser.
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