The Big Picture: Only if Kerala thrives will India survive

Kerala votes tomorrow. After that, huge chunks of India will vote in the remaining five phases. Despite what most pollsters, many pundits and a certain party claim, the result is not foregone, it is far from done and dusted. In the past week or so, as the three political fronts here finally shook off their peak summer-induced stupor and woke up to what was at stake, we saw the campaigning become the charade we feared it would.

It started with shrill taunts from the two main fronts accusing each other of sleeping with the enemy, complete with choice name-calling and personal attacks, till it descended into a proper menage e trois, a threesome whose scandalous implications are only beginning to unravel.

Meanwhile, the LDF has been running a spot ad on TV which proclaims, ‘Only if Left exists will our India exist’. It’s a relevant statement but the tone seems one of resignation, of hoping against abandoned hope. The Congress ad, in contrast, is far more positive, even aggressive. ‘It’s not an interview letter, it is an appointment letter’ is the punchline, as a jobless youth brandishes the evidence in front of his sceptical father. ‘400 ke paar’ is a myth, see what happens on June 4 is the grand old party’s gung-ho message.

Now, irrespective of who wins in Kerala and by what margin (some permutation-combinations are: UDF 19-1 again; UDF 14, LDF 6; UDF 15, LDF 4, NDA 1), let’s assume that INDIA bloc dethrones Modi. Congress and Left, along with other parties, will be in power in Delhi.

To begin with, they are bound to ensure that there is no rollback of the Constitution and that there is no ominous threat to secularism. The storm would have passed as it were, though Kerala will be robbed of its martyr’s halo. No longer would our state, as it does now, stand out as one of the last outposts of communal harmony, freedom and rationality. Congress and CPM would continue to squabble, especially as 2026 Assembly polls loom, but the agenda for ‘26 would have shifted accordingly -instead of the saffron spectre, the debate would return to who between UDF and LDF can provide better governance. All is well that ends well.

Now, consider the other possibility. If Modi does return for a third term, ‘fascism’ (or more accurately ‘electoral autocracy’) will no longer be just a Cassandra Call. The wolf will actually be at our door. For starters, the new Modi govt will turn its attention to CPM, fully and frontally.

With ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’ more or less realized with a third successive term at the Centre, BJP will have little incentive for a quid pro quo with CPM in Kerala. Expect ED and other agencies to go full throttle on the Karavannur co-op bank scam and gold smuggling cases allegedly involving the CMO. Also, juiced up by the victory nationally, the Sangh Parivar will pull out all stops to create a substantial beachhead in the ’26 Assembly polls. The tried-and-tested tactic for this will be polarisation aimed at consolidating the Hindu vote in its favour.

The CPM will have its task cut out. Its mettle will be tested like it has never been since the undivided communist party’s underground years. The SFI-DYFI sponsored beef festivals, waylaying a septuagenarian governor on the streets or colourful posters with Gramsci’s optimistic slogans – “the old world is dying, the new world struggles to be born: Now is the time of monsters” -splashed on them won’t be enough. Ominously, the renewed Modi offensive will call Pinarayi Vijayan’s bluff that he’s not afraid of jail. In short, heightened persecution. Will CPM wither away under this relentless pressure – a la Tripura, a la Bengal – or will it find renewed strength from Kerala’s ‘exceptionalism’? If CPM / Left takes up the challenge for the latter, it might be surprised by the extent of support it can muster.

Kerala’s Exceptionalism is a real and tangible entity, not a chimera, though it is worn lightly by most Malayalis except when it is explicitly challenged, like now. It is premised on the exceptional historic gains the state has made collectively and over generations – from universal literacy and quality health care to an ecumenism not just in matters of faith but also food and culture. Of course, to tap into this sentiment, the Left will have to first liberate itself from its own moribund Marxist dogma, to retain what is enduring in its ideology but ruthlessly wean itself from what is outdated and pointless and get to the heart of things. It will have to reorient itself as the ‘religion’ of a secular and poetic democracy, with social justice and empowerment of the ordinary individual at its core.

Only such a rejuvenated Left will be able to gather up the multiple shards of identities – political, religious and cultural -scattered across the state and render In Varietate into a Concordia, turn Malayalis’ diversity into Kerala’s unity. Kerala’s Exceptionalism is a cause worth taking up by the Left. And, like how Stalin elevated “socialism in one country” as the Soviet Union’s clarion call when the revolution failed to materialize anywhere else, it might also be our Left’s only path for survival. It’s still not too late – LDF should change its ad from ‘Only if Left exists will our India exist’ to ‘Only if Kerala thrives will India survive’.