With state & national issues on mind, voters face heady mix on April 23

MARGAO

: The announcement of the simultaneous polls for the three byelections and the

Lok Sabha

in Goa has set the stage for a major distortion in the political arithmetic of the state which is likely to hold sway over the contours of the Lok Sabha campaign in the state.


Political observers feel it is imminent that the electoral dynamics of the bypolls will exert its influence on the Lok Sabha elections, even as the national narrative of the Lok Sabha polls is bound to shape the campaign discourse of the bypolls as well.

Former state election commissioner and political commentator, Prabhakar Timble, puts it succinctly, when he says, “The proposition that national issues dominate Parliamentary elections and local issues in state elections largely holds true in theory. For the general voter, such a fine difference does not make such material difference.”

Mining, poll watchers feel, is definitely a big issue that will set the campaign narrative in both the polls in Goa.

“Besides, local issues like coal pollution in Vasco, rising unemployment, etc are likely to adversely affect the prospects of the BJP candidate for the Lok Sabha polls,” a veteran political commentator said.

Significantly, the belligerent stand taken by the MGP over its intent to contest the byelection from Shiroda is threatening to alter the course of coalition politics in the state. Political observers do not discount the possibility of the BJP suffering a collateral damage in the Lok Sabha polls as a consequence of the discord between its two coalition partners in the state government over the Shiroda byelection. The fact that MGP still retains its traditional vote base in both these constituencies could stand the regional outfit in good stead, political observers feel.

The defections of

Dayanand Sopte

and Subhash Shirodkar from the Congress into the BJP, necessitating the bypolls, has not gone down well with most of the BJP supporters in those constituencies, on account of which the two new entrants are yet to ensconce themselves in the

saffron

family.

Besides, the ghar wapsi of former BJP minister

Mahadev Naik

into the Congress has also alienated a sizeable number of his supporters. The MGP, political observers say, is eyeing this very section of voters who are disenchanted with both Shirodkar and Naik. While MGP may look to reaping benefits of this situation in the bypolls, the BJP could well be the loser if the voter sentiments spill over to the Lok Sabha polls.

As the MGP and BJP had fought the last Lok Sabha elections together giving the BJP candidate Narendra Sawaikar a decisive edge, this time, however, political observers feel, the bickering between the MGP and the other coalition partner,

Goa Forward Party

(GFP) over the Shiroda byelection could well cast a shadow over Sawaikar’s prospects.

Nevertheless, poll watchers feel the BJP, well aware of the MGP’s truant behaviour, is confident of taming its coalition partner well in time. While a win for the MGP in Shiroda is unlikely to make much of a difference for BJP in coalition politics, as the junior saffron partner will anyways remain with the BJP, any increase in MGP’s tally of seats will mean the MGP will have an upper hand over its other alliance partner, the GFP, thereby lending the former more bargaining power in the government.

“In the run-down to national elections,” Timble said, “the attempt of BJP is to eclipse all relevant national challenges by projecting security threats to the nation as the prime issue and positioning critics as anti-nationals. This is unlikely to cut ice in Goa in Lok Sabha elections. What will dominate people's mind will be the failures of the current state government, the collapse of administration and the whimsical dance of ministers comprising the rudderless state cabinet for Parliamentary seats as well as the three by-elections.”