Goa may escape El Nino impact, suggests past data

Panaji: With the distant but much-feared El Nino system set to roll into its sphere of influence in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean off the Peru coast, weathermen poring over past data, however, state that Goa may escape its dreaded impact.

Analysis of data from the past 11 El Nino years showed that only a few of them exerted a strong influence over Goa’s territory. This included the El Nino years of 1972 and 2002, when the state recorded significantly deficient monsoon rainfall of 47.3% and 24.4%, respectively.

“Out of 11 El Nino years, we had three strong El Nino years, namely, 1982, 1997 and 2015. But Goa surprisingly logged excess rainfall of 18.8% in 1982 and 15.3% in 1997,” M R Ramesh Kumar, chief scientist (retired), NIO, and meteorologist, said.

The only exception was the strong El Nino of 2015, which exerted its influence significantly over the state, as the monsoon season ended with a deficit of 19.4%.

The remaining eight El Nino years showed moderate to weak phenomena that affect weather in various parts of the globe.

“Goa received deficit rainfall in general during the years 1972, 1977, 1987, 2002, 2003, 2009 and 2012, except for an excess of 13% in 2023,” Kumar said.

But the shortfall in monsoon activity during these years was below 20% in a few cases and below 10% in about four cases.

El Nino in 1997 was classified as one of the strongest of the 20th century, raising fears of droughts.

“But the Indian subcontinent had normal to excess monsoon rainfall in that year, thanks to the influence of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which suppressed the effect of the El Nino of the century,” Kumar said.

As an influential system in the Indian Ocean, the interplay between it and El Nino decides the quantum of rainfall over the subcontinent.

“There can be other ocean-atmospheric parameters besides IOD (positive phase) that can play an important role in suppressing the El Nino effect on the Indian summer monsoon and on rainfall over Goa,” Kumar stated.