Lok Sabha Elections 2024: SWOT how will Haryana vote this time?

| Ajay Sura | TNN | May 25, 2024, 08:09 IST

The Lok Sabha elections in Haryana are set to take place with two... Read More

CHANDIGARH: The voting for the Lok Sabha elections in Haryana is to be held on Saturday, when around two crore voters are scheduled to exercise their franchise to elect 10 MPs for the 18th Lok Sabha. TOI’s Ajay Sura gives us a bird’s-eye view of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities & threats facing prominent candidates in these 10 seats.KURUKSHETRANaveen Jindal (BJP)Strengths | Has served as a parliamentarian from the seat of Kurukshetra twice and is a well-known face in the area, votes from Narendra Modi's supporters and BJP’s influence, as the Haryana CM is the outgoing MP.Weaknesses | Not very popular on the ground as he hardly visited his former constituency in the last five years. His total reliance on Modi.Opportunities | Though a turncoat, who joined the Bharatiya Janata Party just few minutes before announcement of ticket, his victory may help him in becoming a BJP leader at the Centre.Threats | BJP is facing strong opposition from the farming community, infighting in the party as many BJP politicians were vying for a ticket and his shift to BJP is being projected by his opponents as a move to avoid action in CBI cases pending against him.Sushil Gupta (AAP-Cong)Strengths | He is backed by Congress party, which has strong influence on this seat and BJP facing strong opposition in rural areas.Weaknesses | New face, no roots in Kurukshetra. A businessman, Gupta belongs to Jind district.Opportunities | His victory would not only open AAP's account in Haryana but will also boost AAP prospects in the upcoming state assembly polls.Threats | His main opponent has represented Kurukshetra twice in the past. The number of votes for Abhay Chautala in the constituency will be his loss.Abhay Chautala (INLD)Strengths | Long political experience. Strong influence among rural voters. Not a new face like the AAP-Cong candidate. Had contested from Kurukshetra earlier and in the previous LS elections, his younger son Arjun Chautala unsuccessfully contested from the seat. Support from the Bharatiya Kisan Union faction led by Gurnam Singh Charuni.Weaknesses | Decreasing party cadre. His father and former Haryana CM Om Prakash Chautala, who has the capacity to influence people with his presence, is unwell and cannot campaign actively. Little influence in the urban belt.Opportunities | His victory would revive his political career as well as give a lifeline to his party, INLD in the upcoming state assembly elections.Threats | Chances of shifting of majority rural votes in favour of the alliance candidate from the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).SIRSA (SC)Kumari Selja (Cong)Strengths | One of the tallest women leaders of Congress in the country, Selja has represented the Sirsa seat twice in the past. Her father also served as an MP from the same seat and also was an Union minister. She also served as an Union minister in the Manmohan Singh-led government. A well-known face in the constituency and among people. A well-educated politician who understands the nuances of politics in Haryana.Weaknesses | Though she has served as an MP from Sirsa, she is better known for her proximity to party high command in Delhi rather than as a popular politician at ground level. She is also part of one Haryana Congress faction, popularly known as SRKB, that is opposed to former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who has significant influence in Sirsa.Opportunities | Her victory would establish her as one of the tallest women leaders of Haryana and would ensure a ministerial berth at Centre if Congress forms the new government. She would also have a say in ticket distribution for Haryana assembly polls slated to be held in October. She also aspires to become the first woman CM of Haryana and her Lok Sabha victory would raise her stature in the party.Threats | Hooda’s influence in the constituency and split in non-Jat votes. The Hooda-led faction, which has a significant presence in all the 10 Lok Sabha seats, may not support her openly in Sirsa. JJP and INLD candidates would dent Congress votes and this would benefit the BJP nominee.Ashok Tanwar (BJP)Strengths | Well-known in state’s politics and BJP’s Dalit face. The former Haryana Congress chief had represented the constituency in 2009-2014.Weaknesses | Not a grassroots leader and has switched his loyalties to many parties from Congress, to AAP, TMC and now BJP within a short span.Opportunities | If he wins, he can emerge as a strong BJP Dalit leader in Haryana and may stake claim to a ministerial berth at Centre, if BJP is voted to power.Threats | His turncoat image and he has lost previous two elections consecutively. BJP nominated him by denying ticket to sitting MP Sunita Duggal and there are chances that Duggal’s voters/supporters are unhappy.HISARRanjit Singh (BJP)Strengths | Strong political legacy as he is son of former deputy prime minister and prominent Jat leader Devi Lal, who is considered the ‘Tau’ of Indian politics. The BJP vote bank, especially in nonJat communities, may give him an upper hand over other candidates.Weaknesses | He is considered an ‘outsider’ in Hisar as he is a resident of Sirsa district. He was not very active in politics prior to becoming an independent MLA in 2019 from Rania (in Sirsa district) and then getting a ministerial berth in the BJP-led state government. Age might become a factor as he is close to 80 years old.Opportunities | If he wins, he will emerge as a strong Jat leader in BJP and the party would stake claim to Devi Lal’s legacy through him.Threats | Several BJP leaders were ticket aspirants from Hisar and may cause him damage indirectly. He became a primary member of BJP just a few minutes before he was announced as the party nominee from Hisar Lok Sabha seat.Two other members of the Chautala clan, including JJP MLA Naina Chautala and INLD’s Sunaina Chautala are also in fray seeking votes in the name of Devi Lal. Protests by farmer unions and by villagers against BJP are a problem for him.Naina Chautala (JJP)Strengths | Her son Dushyant Chautala represented Hisar in 2014 and became the country's youngest parliamentarian. She is two-term MLA and has strong political legacy being the daughterin-law of former Haryana CM O P Chautala. Dushyant is a sitting MLA from Uchana that falls in Hisar Lok Sabha seat. Her husband Ajay Chautala was once the most influential politician in Haryana.Weaknesses | Her party was recently shown the door by BJP and now facing strong anti-incumbency for its almost five years as coalition partner of BJP since the 2019 assembly poll. JJP is facing flak now for supporting BJP despite its anti-BJP stance in the 2019 assembly poll.Opportunities | Her victory or even a decent vote percentage would be a lifeline for the survival of JJP, which is headed by her husband Ajay Chautala.Threats | The BJP and INLD candidates are a threat as both belong to the Jat community and are eying the same vote bank being from the same Chautala clan. There is also strong opposition in Hisar villages against JJP.Jai Prakash alias JP (Congress)Strengths | Strong political experience as he has been an MP from Hisar and had served as a minister at the Centre. Strong backing of former Haryana CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who has a strong clout in the area.Weaknesses | Opposition parties are targeting JP for being a non-reliable person who keeps on making false promises to people. He is also an ‘outsider’ as he belongs to Kaithal district.Opportunities | If he wins, he may emerge a tall leader in state for defeating three members of former deputy PM Devi Lal’s Chautala clan.Threats | Internal rift in the Congress party. Non-Jat, especially backward community votes that are significantly high in number in Hisar seat may vote for BJP that recently appointed a person from backward community, Nayab Saini, as the CM. Birender Singh, whose son and sitting MP Brijendra was denied a ticket by Congress, may be upset. Votes taken by JJP and INLD would affect JP’s vote count.Sunaina Chautala (INLD)Strengths | She is a known face in the constituency for being granddaughter-in-law of Devi Lal. She has strong backing of INLD, which was once the most influential regional political outfit of Haryana. People still link INLD with Devi Lal and Om Prakash Chautala. The party has voters in almost every village and she is among active women leaders of Haryana.Weaknesses | She is facing members of her own Chautala clan as her opponents. It is her first Lok Sabha election and she does not have star campaigners like opponents, especially BJP and Congress, have for canvassing.Opportunities | If she wins or even if she manages to get more votes than JJP’s Naina Chautala, she would emerge as a strong woman leader of the state.Threats | Her party INLD is not as popular as it used to be in the past. The party’s cadre has shifted either to Congress party or JJP.BHIWANI-MAHENDRAGARHRao Dan Singh (Congress)Strengths | Strong support of senior leaders like Bhupinder Singh Hooda. Is capable of getting votes from Ahirwal belt.Weaknesses | Infighting in Congress. Kiran Chaudhary, whose daughter Shruti was denied ticket, may not support him.Opportunities | His victory would make him a new Ahirwal leader at par with BJP’s Rao Inderjit Singh.Threats | Modi wave in Ahirwal area and strong Ahirwal leader Rao Inderjit Singh seeking votes for BJP’s Dharamvir Singh. JJP nominee Rao Bahadur Singh may also dent his vote bank in Ahirwal belt.Dharamvir Singh (BJP)Strengths | Support for Modi, Gurgaon MP Rao Inderjit Singh getting him votes of the Yadava community.Weaknesses | Anti-incumbency as he could not do much in the past 10-years as an MP. Has criticised ruling BJP on some occasions in the past.Opportunities | His third consecutive victory may help establish him as a senior Jat leader in Haryana BJP. May get a ministerial berth if BJP is voted to power at Centre.Threats | Division of Jat votes because of aggressive campaign by Hooda in favour of Congress nominee. Chances of Yadava votes shifting in favour of the Congress nominee.Rao Bahadur Singh (JJP)Strengths | A well-known face in the constituency who in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls as INLD candidate got more votes than Shruti Chaudhary, former Haryana CM Bansi Lal’s granddaughter.Weaknesses | No senior leaders or star campaigners are canvassing for him like the Congress and the BJP.Opportunities | His victory would not only give him prominence in southern Haryana but would add new life to his party JJP.Threats | Chances of division of Yadava votes because of Rao Dan Singh, and strong opposition to JJP in rural areas.AMBALAVarun Chaudhary (Congress)Strengths | Already an established leader in Ambala district and a popular MLA in state assembly. Strong political legacy of his father and former minister Phool Chand Mulana. No Congress infighting in this seat.Weaknesses | Contesting parliamentary polls for the first time. Didn’t get adequate time to cover the entire constituency when compared with his opponent whose nomination was announced much earlier.Opportunities | His victory would establish him as a popular Dalit leader of Congress in Haryana.Threats | Strong support for Modi in some parts of the constituency. Sympathy vote for his opponent Banto Kataria, who has been nominated by BJP after the death of her husband and former Union minister Rattan Lal Kataria.Banto Kataria (BJP)Strengths | Strong support for Modi in some parts of Ambala. The widow of the former MP, she was active in the women's wing of BJP.Weaknesses | Not very popular in the constituency and banking on sympathy wave on account of her husband’s death last year.Opportunities | Her victory would establish her as an important woman leader of Haryana BJP as she would be the only woman MP of the party from the state.Threats | Anti-incumbency against the ruling party, especially in rural segments of the constituency. Strong opponent like Varun Chaudhari who has a strong political legacy and a popular and clean image.SONIPATSatpal Brahmachari (Congress)Strengths | Votes of Jat community, which is upset with BJP in Haryana and is openly supporting any candidate who can give a tough fight to BJP nominees. Strong influence in the Brahmin community, which has a significant presence in the constituency. Backing of Bhupinder Hooda, who has mass appeal in the constituency.Weaknesses | Since he lives in Haridwar, where he has a strong base, and even had contested state assembly polls from Haridwar, albeit unsuccessfully, his opponents have branded him an “outsider.”Opportunities | His victory would anoint him one of the most important Brahmin leaders of Congress in the state.Threats | There is a chance that some of his vote bank would be diverted to BJP’s Mohan Lal Badoli.Mohan Lal Badoli (BJP)Strengths | Brahmin votes and he is a sitting member of the legislative assembly from the ruling party.Weaknesses | Not very popular and has been limited to one assembly constituency.Opportunities | His victory would make him a senior Brahmin leader of BJP in the state as the current MP from Sonipat is almost out of politics. He may get an important post in the party, as he belongs to RSS.Threats | Opposition to BJP in villages. No backing of any senior leader who can get support of Jat voters for him. Brahmin votes may shift to the Congress nominee.FARIDABADKrishna Pal Gujjar (BJP)Strengths | Strong support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his policies in the Lok Sabha constituency. Krishna Pal Gujjar has the advantage of being a sitting MP as well as a Union minister.Weaknesses | Facing criticism for being inaccessible to his constituents during his tenure as MPOpportunities | Victory would ensure his promotion as fullfledged cabinet rank minister in case the Bharatiya Janata Party wins againThreats | Congress party’s Mahender Pratap Singh, who is from the Gujjar community and an influential leader. Strong backing of his opponent by former Haryana chief minister Bhupinder Hooda, as Faridabad has significant presence of Jat voters. Another influential Gujjar leader, Avtar Singh Bhadana, has joined the Congress.Mahender Pratap Singh (Congress)Strengths | Former minister, senior most influential leader of the Gujjar community. Support of the Muslim votersWeaknesses | Initial opposition by some local leaders against his candidature. Age factor.Opportunities | His victory would not only revive his political career but also Congress in the constituency.Threats | Strong opponent like Krishan Pal Gujjar, who is a sitting Union minister in the Modi govt. His inactivity in the constituency for the past few years.KARNALManohar Lal Khattar (BJP)Strengths | Influential leader being former CM who led the state for around nine-and-a-half years. He has all the official machinery and is still known as ‘Super CM’ of the state.Weaknesses | Issue of inaccessibility, accused of being arrogant and his tough and negative stance against farmer community during the farmers’ agitation.Opportunities | His victory would establish him as BJP’s central leader and may get a bigger role in the party.Threats | Massive opposition in rural areas, as he cannot even go to some villages for campaigning fearing backlash. Chances of division of Punjabi vote bank, as his opponent is also from the same community. May suffer loss of vote bank due to NCP candidate Virender Maratha. Recently, two senior BJP leaders joined Congress.Divyanshu Budhiraja (Congress)Strengths | A good speaker and influencer. Activist, who had first dared to oppose Khattar with black flag. Strong backing of Bhupinder Hooda. Massive support from the farming community, which may vote collectively against BJP.Weaknesses | Not active in the constituency like his opponent. Newcomer, contesting first election.Opportunities | His victory would make him a giant killer and he would emerge as a future leader of Congress.Threats | Influence of BJP in Karnal, as the party had won with a massive margin of 6.56 lakh votes in 2019 polls. No experience of contesting elections in the past. Infighting in Congress party.GURGAONRao Inderjit Singh (BJP)Strengths | Sitting MP and Union minister. Strong following in Yadava community, urban areas.Weaknesses | Poor support from MeoMuslim community, which has strong presence in the constituencyOpportunities | His victory would ensure cabinet berth at Centre. He will become undisputed leader of Yadava community in Haryana.Threats | Congress candidate Raj Babbar, who is also a filmstar, may get huge support from Muslim vote-bank and some urban voters.Raj Babbar (Congress)Strengths | A popular face being a film actor. Strong backing of former Haryana CM Bhupinder Hooda.Weaknesses | He has been given the tag of ‘outsider’ in Gurgaon by his opponents in the election.Opportunities | Though he is native of Agra in UP, his victory from Gurgaon would give him prominence in Congress. May even get a ministerial berth if Congress forms government.Threats | Strong opponent, who has strong influence on different pressure groups.ROHTAKDeepender Singh Hooda (Congress)Strengths | A popular face in the constituency, has already represented Rohtak thrice. His father, former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda is an influential leader in the state.Weaknesses | Former chier minister Manohar Lal Khattar’s influence may deprive him of votes of the Punjabi community, which has significant presence in Rohtak city.Opportunities | His victory would ensure his emergence as leader of Deswali belt. His stature would be high in Congress high command for winning the seat in such a tough atmosphere.Threats | Shifting of the Punjabi community's votes in favour of the BJP candidate and all the infighting happening at the moment in the Haryana Congress.Arvind Sharma (BJP)Strengths | Sitting MP of a ruling party, who has a good chance of fetching the non-Jat votes in yet another parliamentary contest after 2019.Weaknesses | Anti-incumbency against the Bharatiya Janata Party, especially the party's state government. Already facing criticism for being a turncoat who changes his loyalties frequently.Opportunities | His victory may establish his place in the state politics and may even put him in line to get a ministerial berth, if the BJP receives a mandate to remain in the Centre.Threats | Stature and popularity of the Hooda family (Bhupinder Singh Hooda and his son Deepender Hooda), who represent the Congress in Rohtak.
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Lok Sabha Elections 2024: SWOT how will Haryana vote this time?

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