Contest 2019: Karnataka’s first one-on-one battle in 30 years

BENGALURU: The Congress-JD(S) alliance will take on the BJP in Karnataka’s first oneon-one contest in a general election in three decades, the faceoff setting the stage for the mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) being formed at the national level.


The last direct fight in Karnataka was in 1989, when the Congress and the Janata Dal went head to head. The Congress swept the elections, winning 27 of the 28 seats. The rise of the BJP in the 1991 elections turned the state’s electoral battle into a triangular contest, with former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda’s JD(S) being the third force.

After the fractured verdict in the 2018 assembly elections, arch-rivals Congress and JD(S) decided to join hands to keep the BJP out of power.

Political compulsions to stop Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s juggernaut at the national level also drove the two rivals together, despite murmurs from some Congress leaders who believe that the alliance will be counterproductive for the country’s oldest party. The only thing that has kept dissenters quiet is that AICC president Rahul Gandhi himself engineered the pact. It was Rahul too who moved swiftly after the 2018 election results to strike a deal with the JD(S), checkmating the BJP which was only eight seats shy of a simple majority. The impact of the alliance will be gauged by the results in the general election but the recent bypolls to three assembly and two Lok Sabha seats gave the coalition partners hope. They won four of the five seats.

“This proves that forging an alliance was a winning move,” said KPCC working president Eshwar Khandre who is expected to contest from Bidar. “We will again prove it by winning over 20 seats in

Lok Sabha elections

.”

In Bidar district, the two parties’ collective vote share in the 2018 assembly elections was six lakh and the BJP’s around four lakh.

“In 2014, the BJP won by 70,000 votes. But this time we will win the seat hands down. The situation is the same in most seats won by the BJP in the past,” Khandre said.

Political observer Harish Ramaswamy expects the coalition to do well.

“Since the BJP has been on the back foot nationally and the Congress has been gaining ground, we can expect a change in results in states where the Congress has aligned with regional parties,” Ramaswamy said.

However, some believe a direct fight will not help the alliance since there is a clear voter base demarcation and none of the three parties have a pan-Karnataka presence. While the BJP is strong in North, Central, Coastal Karnataka and Bengaluru city, which together have around 18 Lok Sabha seats, the Congress and JD(S) are formidable forces in the Old Mysuru region.

“The question of one party making significant inroads in the stronghold of another party does not arise at all,” said a BJP leader. “The alliance can snatch one or two seats from the BJP, not more.”

The JD(S) has a negligible presence in North Karnataka, where its vote share has been less than 5% in the past three elections, so it would be asking too much to expect it to help the Congress to win more seats in the region.

On the other hand, both parties are strong in the Old Mysuru region. Now that they have joined hands, there will literally be no fight. But political analysts are of the opinion that this will help the BJP gain a foothold in a region dominated by Vokkaligas.